Reference Date: 16-May-2013
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Wheat production forecast to recover from 2012
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Record 2013 maize harvest
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Higher maize exports in marketing year 2013/14
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Wheat production to recover in 2013
Early indications for the 2013 wheat crop, to be planted from June suggest an increase of the area planted from last year’s sharply reduced level to about 3.5 million hectares. Assuming normal weather conditions and a recovery in yields relative to last year, FAO’s preliminary forecast point to an increase in production to an average level of 11 million tonnes. Because of adverse weather conditions during different stages of the cropping season, the 2012 wheat harvest was estimated at 9 million tonnes, almost 38 percent lower than in the previous year.
Harvesting of the 2013 rice crop was virtually completed by mid-May. FAO estimates a decline in rice production of 4.5 percent or 70 000 tonnes, to near 1.5 million tonnes (in paddy terms). The decline mainly reflects lower yields due to low temperatures and the lack of sufficient humidity during the grain filling stage.
Record 2013 maize production
Harvest of the 2013 maize crop is well advanced. Production is officially forecast to increase by 21 percent from the previous year to a record level of 25.7 million tonnes. Higher yields in the key growing areas more than offset a reduction of 8 percent in the area planted due to excessive rains at sowing time, as well as subsequent dry spells in the North-West region.
Higher maize exports in marketing year 2013/14
FAO forecast an eight percent increase in maize exports to 18.5 million tonnes in the 2013/14 marketing year (March/February). The increase in exports is supported by the improved 2013 production and the highly competitive Argentina maize price relative to the United States quotations. Along with Brazil, exports from Argentina in the coming months will contribute to ease tight supplies in the world maize market due to last year’s drought-reduced harvest in the United States.
Cereal export prices declining
Export prices of maize have decreased in recent months mainly reflecting this year’s good harvest. Wheat export quotations for Argentinean wheat fell six percent in April, continuing their declining trend since the beginning of the year. However, they remained still significantly higher than a year ago in line with international prices of other origins.