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Reference Date: 24-February-2015

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Favourable production prospects for 2015 maize crops despite lower plantings

  2. Cereal production in 2014 reached record levels

  3. Maize exports in 2014/15 marketing year (March/February) forecast at record level

  4. Wheat exports forecast at three-year high in 2014/15 marketing year (December/November)

  5. Wheat flour and maize prices declined in January

Favourable production prospects for 2015 maize crops despite lower plantings

Production of the 2015 maize crop is forecast to decline by some 8 percent from last year’s record level but still remain well above the five-year average. With favourable crop conditions reported in mid-February, the year-on-year reduction in output is mainly due to reduced plantings, which are officially estimated at 5.5 million hectares, about 11 percent lower than the record high of 2014. This reflects relatively low prices at planting time, as a result of ample domestic supplies after two consecutive years of bumper production.

Cereal production in 2014 reached record levels

Overall, cereal production in 2014 is estimated at a record level of 55.4 million tonnes (paddy basis). The 2014 wheat production recovered from the low levels of the previous years, reaching 13.9 million tonnes, up 51 percent from 2013 and above the country’s five-year average, on account of a strong recovery in the area planted due to high domestic prices at sowing time. Maize production reached a record 33 million tonnes in 2014 as a result of higher plantings and yields.

Maize exports in 2014/15 marketing year (March/February) forecast at record level

Maize exports in the 2014/15 marketing year (March/February) are forecast to reach a record19 million tonnes. This mainly reflects this year’s high production and comparatively low export prices as a result of the strong depreciation of the Argentine currency.

Wheat exports forecast at three-year high in 2014/15 marketing year (December/November)

Wheat exports in the 2014/15 year (December/November) are preliminarily forecast at 7 million tonnes. At this level, exports would reach a three-year high. However, the Government has only issued export permits for up to 3.5 million tonnes for the year, or 84 percent above last year’s realized exports.

Wheat flour and maize prices declined in January

Wheat flour prices in January were at a 16-month low and well below their peaks a year earlier, mainly reflecting the arrival into the market of the 2014 good harvest, completed in December. Prices where almost 56 percent below their level of January 2014. Similarly, yellow maize prices also declined sharply in January and were some 9 percent below their levels a year earlier. The sharp decline mainly reflects this year’s bumper crop.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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