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Reference Date: 11-September-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production for 2014 to reach a new record

  2. Maize exports in the 2014/15 marketing year (March/February) to remain high

  3. Cereal prices declining reflecting a record maize harvest and good prospects for the wheat crop

Cereal production for 2014 to reach a new record

Harvesting of the 2014 maize crop is virtually concluded, early estimates point to a higher than expected crop due to higher yields as a result of favourable weather during the season. Maize production is estimated at 30 million tonnes or 3 percent up from the good 2013 level and well above the five-year average. Wheat production, to be harvested from November, is forecast to reach 11.5 million tonnes on a strong recovery in area planted due to high domestic prices. In aggregate cereal production for 2014 is expected at a record level of about 52 million tonnes.

Planting of the 2015 maize crop will begin in late September. Early forecasts point to a 10 percent reduction in the area planted. The drop in planting intentions mainly reflects low international maize prices, as the country normally exports half of its annual production.

Maize exports for the 2014/15 marketing year (March/February) to remain high

Preliminary FAO forecasts for the 2014/15 marketing year (March/February) for maize exports have been revised upward to 18 million tonnes. The revision reflects the better than expected production. However, exports will remain slightly below last year’s level due to strong competition from Brazil and the United States.

Cereal prices declining reflecting a record maize harvest and good prospects for the wheat crop

Wheat flour prices declined by 6 percent in August and were substantially below their peaks at the beginning of the year on expectations of a good 2014 wheat harvest and significant export restrictions. However, prices remained 57 percent above their August 2013 levels following two consecutive years of below average production.

Yellow maize prices continued their declining trend since April and in August fell by 9 percent from the previous month. This year’s above average harvest has provided downward pressure on prices. However, in nominal terms, prices remained 20 percent higher than a year earlier.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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