Reference Date: 18-January-2018
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Cereal production in 2017 estimated close to average level
Cereal imports in 2017/18 marketing year (July/June) expected close to previous year’s level
Prices of wheat flour were stable in last months
Cereal production in 2017 estimated close to five-year average
Cereal production in 2017 is estimated at 567 000 tonnes, just 3 percent below the high level in 2016, but still close to average. Wheat production is set at 340 000 tonnes, just 10 000 tonnes below 2016’s level.
Planting of winter cereals (wheat and minor barley crops), for harvest in 2018, is complete. The total area planted is forecast to be close to the previous year. Although rainfall amounts have been below average at planting time, precipitations during the October-November 2017 period have been sufficient to provide adequate soil moisture in most areas.
Cereal imports in 2017/18 expected close to previous year’s level
Cereal imports in the 2017/18 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 290 000 tonnes, close to the previous year’s level. Wheat imports, which account for the majority of total cereal purchases, are forecast at 260 000 tonnes. The Russian Federation continues to be the main wheat and flour supplier.
Prices of wheat flour stable over last three months
Prices of wheat flour were stable in the October-December 2017 period and were close to their values of a year ago, mainly reflecting relatively low export prices and a stable national currency.
By contrast, prices of potatoes, another key staple, surged in November 2017 and were around 50 percent above their values of a year ago, reflecting a decline in domestic production and high export prices in the subregion.
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