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  Armenia

Reference Date: 03-November-2020

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Well below‑average cereal production obtained in 2020

  2. Cereal import requirements in 2020/21 forecast at above‑average level

  3. Prices of wheat flour remained stable in recent months, while prices of potatoes declined due to weak demand

Well below‑average cereal production obtained in 2020

Harvesting of the 2020 cereal crops finalized in September and the aggregate output is estimated at about 246 000 tonnes, well below the five‑year average. The 2020 production of wheat is set at 140 000 tonnes, about 60 percent below average, mainly due to a gradual reduction in planted area, that almost halved since 2015, as farmers switched to more profitable crops. In addition, scarce precipitation during the season negatively affected yields in parts of the main wheat producing northwestern Shirak Province. Similarly, the output of barley is estimated at a below‑average level of 88 000 tonnes, mostly due to reduced plantings.

Planting of the 2021 winter crops, mainly wheat, to be harvested from July next year, finalized in October under overall favourable weather conditions.

Cereal import requirements in 2020/21 forecast at above‑average level

Cereal import requirements in the 2020/21 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 346 000 tonnes, 10 percent above the five‑year average volume. Wheat imports, which account for most of the total cereal purchases, are forecast at an above‑average level of 300 000 tonnes, on account of the low output obtained in 2020.

Prices of wheat flour remained stable in recent months, while prices of potatoes declined due to weak demand

Domestic prices of first grade wheat flour, after increasing in March and April 2020 mainly due to an uptick in consumer demand amid the COVID‑19 pandemic, remained overall stable in the following five months and, in September, they were near their levels a year before.

Prices of potatoes, another staple food, sharply decreased between May and September 2020, with the arrival to the markets of the recently harvested tubers and weak demand from consumers, reaching levels about 30 percent below those in September 2019.

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