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Reference Date: 11-May-2015


  1. Prospects for 2015 cereal production are favourable

  2. Cereal imports to remain stable in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June)

  3. Prices of wheat flour stable but at record levels in March

Prospects for 2015 cereal production are favourable

Harvesting of the 2015 winter cereal crops, which account for around 95 percent of the total cereal production, will start in early June. Remote sensing data show above-average rainfall during the growing season January to mid-May, over most of the country, which together with adequate supplies of irrigation water, benefitted crop development. Favourable weather conditions also benefited the 2015 secondary spring crops, which are currently in their early development stages. Satellite image-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows that vegetation conditions in most of the country are above-average (as shown by the NDVI map). Assuming that favourable weather will continue, FAO forecasts the 2015 aggregate wheat harvest (main and secondary seasons), to recover from last year’s slightly reduced level and reach nearly 2 million tonnes.

Overall, total cereal production in 2015, mainly wheat, barley and maize crops, is forecast at 2.8 million tonnes, 3 percent above last year’s level.

Cereal imports to remain stable in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June)

Cereal import in 2014/15 (July/June) marketing year are expected to remain unchanged compared with the previous year. The country’s imports account to about 40 percent of total domestic consumption. The bulk of cereal imports, mainly wheat and wheat flour, come from Kazakhstan and about 20 percent from the Russian Federation.

Prices of cereals stable but at record levels

Prices of wheat flour in March showed virtually no change compared to the previous month but were 10 percent higher than their levels a year earlier and at record levels (in nominal terms), after increasing in February mainly underpinned by the depreciation of the national currency. In an attempt to limit price increases, the Government released stocks from state reserves in early March. Prices of potatoes, another food staple, rose further in March and were 4 percent below the record levels of January last year.

Relevant links:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1999
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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