Reference Date: 21-July-2016
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Prospects for 2016 cereal production favourable
Cereal imports to increase slightly from 2015/16 marketing year
Prices of wheat flour 30 percent higher in mid‑2016 than at same time last year
Favourable weather contributed to bumper cereal crop in 2016
Harvesting the 2016 cereal crops started in the beginning of June. According to latest estimates, the aggregate cereal harvest in 2016 stands at 2.94 million tonnes, just 2 percent below the record of last year and well above the average. Wheat production is estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, marginally above the 2015 level. Barley and maize are estimated to account for 1 million and 200 000 tonnes, respectively. Favourable weather conditions - good snow coverage during the winter and abundant rainfall during the spring months - were largely behind the bumper crop achieved again this year.
Cereal imports to remain below average in 2016/17 marketing year (July/June)
Following the small reduction in 2016 cereal harvest, the 2016/17 (July/June) cereal imports are estimated slightly above the previous year’s level, at 1.6 million tonnes. Imports account for about 50 percent of the country’s total domestic consumption. The Russian Federation is expected to remain the country’s main supplier of wheat and wheat flour in 2016/17, a position it took over from Kazakhstan since 2012/13, largely as it has been able to offer more competitive prices.
Prices of local wheat flour almost 30 percent higher in mid‑2016 than year earlier
As in the past months, prices of wheat flour continued to rise in May. Prices of imported wheat flour were 1.6 percent above their level of the previous month and were 22 percent higher than in May 2015. Prices of locally‑produced wheat flour increased more, almost 4 percent up from the previous month and 28 percent higher than a year earlier. Increased electricity tariffs together with continuing weakening of the national currency are the main drivers of price increases.