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Reference Date: 16-June-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Prospects for 2014 cereal production are favourable

  2. Cereal imports to increase sharply in 2013/14 marketing year (July/June)

  3. Cereal prices stable, those of potatoes at near record levels

Prospects for 2014 cereal production are favourable

The area planted under cereals this season is close to last year’s level and crops are reported in overall satisfactory conditions. About 94 percent of cereals planted areas is under winter crops. The 2014 spring plantings have been completed normally though excessive precipitation was observed in parts. The total planted area for winter and spring grains is estimated at around 1 million hectares. Almost two-thirds of the area planted is made up of wheat.

Favourable weather conditions and state support measures contributed to a bumper cereal harvest in 2013 which was estimated at about 2.9 million tonnes, some 6 percent higher than the previous year. Wheat accounts for 71 percent of total cereal output. The country plans to significantly increase wheat production in the near future in order to eliminate its import dependency.

Cereal imports to increase sharply in 2013/14 marketing year (July/June)

In spite of 2013 bumper cereal harvests, the 2013/14 (July/June) cereal import requirements are expected to increase more than 20 percent compared with the previous year. The increase in imports is mainly driven by a build-up of stocks. The country’s imports account to about 40 percent of total domestic consumption. The bulk of cereal imports, mainly wheat and wheat flour, come from Kazakhstan and about 20 percent from the Russian Federation. In order to eliminate import dependency by the end of 2015, the Government is supporting wheat production through several measures including the exemption of VAT for wheat and wheat flour, fuel and seed subsidies, soft loans and machinery services. Still, import requirements for the 2014/15 marketing year are foreseen at 1.5 million tonnes or slightly below the current marketing year’s level.

Prices of cereals stable but those of potatoes at high levels

Prices of wheat flour in April showed virtually no change compared to the previous month and were slightly higher than a year earlier. Prices of potatoes rose only moderately in April but were well above their year-earlier levels and at near-record highs, after surging in previous months underpinned by increased fuel prices. Since average household consumption expenditure on food is around 43 percent, any increase of basic food prices may put at risk food security of low-income groups of population.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1999
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