Reference Date: 29-June-2017
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Cereal production in 2017 forecast at average level
Cereal imports expected to increase slightly from 2016/17 marketing year
Prices of locally-produced wheat flour increased by 40 percent over last 12 months
Cereal production in 2017 forecast at close to five-year average level
Harvesting of the 2017 winter cereal crops, which account for more than 90 percent of the total cereal production, started in early June. Total area planted under cereals this season is forecast close to last year’s level. The 2017 spring plantings were completed in April under generally favourable weather conditions, although some moisture deficits were observed in some areas.
Assuming normal weather conditions, FAO’s forecast for 2017 cereal production stands at 2.9 million tonnes similar to last five-year average.
Cereal imports forecast to increase in 2017/18 marketing year (July/June)
The 2017/18 (July/June) cereal imports, mainly wheat and wheat flour, are forecast at 1.6 million tonnes, slightly above the previous year’s level. Overall, cereal imports account for about 50 percent of the country’s total domestic consumption. The Russian Federation is expected to remain the country’s main supplier of wheat and wheat flour in 2017/18, as it is expected to offer more competitive prices compared to other exporting countries in the subregion.
Prices of local wheat flour almost 40 percent higher in April than year earlier
Prices of locally‑produced wheat flour were stable in April, but about 40 percent above year-earlier levels, mainly due to currency weakness and higher utility prices, including electricity, gas and water, which increased milling costs. Prices of imported wheat flour were slightly above their levels of April 2016, mainly reflecting price trends on the export markets.
Prices of potatoes, an important staple in the country, increased sharply over the past few months and reached very high levels in April. Prices rose by 6 percent in April and were about 15 percent higher than their year-earlier levels. Seasonal patterns were exacerbated by a reduction in the 2016 output of the main subregional exporters, in particular the Russian Federation.