Reference Date: 22-March-2013
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Early prospects for 2013 cereal production are satisfactory
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Record cereal harvest gathered in 2012
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Import requirements increase for 2012/13 marketing year
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Prices of basic food increase continuously
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Early prospects for 2013 cereal production are satisfactory
In 2012, the planting of winter crops was mainly carried out in good agronomic and weather conditions. Winter cereals were planted across an area of 1.4 million hectares and the area under winter cereals is close to the previous year’s level. On average, winter cereals account for about 44 percent of the total planted area under cereals, and over 63 percent of this was made up of wheat and rye. Overall, the condition of winter crops is satisfactory. According to the Hydro-meteorological services of the Republic of Belarus, winter kills are insignificant for late March due to widespread snow coverage. However, continuing cold weather in March combined with thawing snow raises further concern and requires fields to be monitored.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Food plans to harvest over 10 million tonnes of grain in 2013, mainly to increase the production of coarse grains. Preparations are being made for the spring planting season and state subsidies are being provided for fuel, fertilizers and other agricultural inputs.
Record cereal harvest in 2012
In 2012, the country reported a record cereal harvest, with wheat and rye crops representing around 23 and 17 percent of the total output respectively. Total cereal output increased by about 12 percent, demonstrating continuous stable growth. This is mainly due to a well above average coarse grain production, which saw a 15 percent increase in yields. Aggregate cereal production in 2012 is estimated at 8.7 million tonnes, of which 6.7 million tonnes coarse grains. Favourable cropping conditions contributed to the higher yields, and these high yields were supported by the timely provision of fertilizers, seeds and other agricultural inputs through state subsidies.
Import requirements increase for 2012/13 marketing year
Despite the country having significantly increased cereal production in recent years, the import requirements in terms of cereals for 2012/13 (July/June) are estimated at 475 000 tonnes. This is an increase of four times compared to the previous marketing year. However, the country’s import dependency is insignificant (6 percent of domestic needs). Although the country’s cereal production has increased, export availability is less than 1 percent of total cereal production due to the expansion of the livestock sector and the high demand for feed. The country’s export opportunities are mainly connected to its membership of the newly-formed Customs Union (CU), whose other members are the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and the Eurasian Economic Space.
Prices of basic food increase continuously
In spite of the country’s adequate food supply, prices of staple foods have increased in nominal terms year-on-year. The highest increases have been recorded for wheat flour, bread, and potatoes by 48, 69, and 30 percent, respectively. The overall macro-economic situation, the accelerating inflation rate and the easing of the food price regulation by state authorities have all contributed to the higher food prices.