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Reference Date: 20-July-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal output for 2016 forecast at sharply reduced level

  2. Cereal imports in 2016/17 marketing year anticipated to increase

  3. Maize prices surge in first half of July, rice and wheat flour prices increase moderately

Cereal output for 2016 forecast at sharply reduced level

Harvest of the 2016 summer cereal crop concluded in June and production for the season has been estimated at a sharply reduced level, particularly in the main producing Province of Santa Cruz. The reduction in output reflects lower plantings, drought conditions towards the end of the season and high pest infestations. Planting of the 2016 winter crop also concluded in June, no official estimates are yet available for the area sown. However, plantings are expected to be reduced as sowing conditions were impacted by the lower levels of precipitation during May and June. A preliminary forecast points to a reduction in aggregate cereal output for 2016 of 23 percent to 2 million tonnes, below the five‑year average.

Cereal imports in 2016/17 marketing year anticipated to increase

Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are expected to increase some 22 percent, reflecting this year’s reduced outputs and reach 581 000 tonnes. Most of the anticipated increase in imports reflects higher purchases of maize and wheat.

Maize prices surge in first half of July, rice and wheat flour prices increase moderately

Prices of maize surged as high as 30 percent in the first two weeks of July and are between 28 and 88 percent above their level a year earlier across the main markets. Prices are being sustained by the tight supplies in the market following the reduced 2016 winter crop harvest.

Prices of wheat flour, which is mostly imported, increased moderately during the first half of July and are between 13 and 20 percent above their level at the same time last year in the main markets, reflecting this year’s reduced outputs.

Rice prices followed mixed trends in the first half of July, however, prices remained well above their level at the same period last year as a result of this year’s reduced harvest.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2008, 2007
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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