Reference Date: 06-July-2012
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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The 2012 maize production forecast above average
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Cereal imports in 2012/13 (May/April) to decline
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Maize and rice prices below last year’s levels
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The 2012 maize production forecast above average
Sowing of the 2012 secondary (winter) season maize, wheat, rice and soybeans crops was delayed by excessive rains in May, particularly in northern parts of the key growing Santa Cruz department. Despite localized crop losses due to the heavy rains, overall prospects for the season remain favourable.
Production of the recently harvested main 2012 summer season cereal crops is estimated to be good. Crops benefited of adequate weather conditions throughout the season (November - May). Official forecast point to a 2012 maize aggregate (main and second season) output of about 1 million tonnes or 4 percent above the good level of 2011. This reflects the favourable weather during the main season and an increase in the planted area. Rice output is estimated at 600 000 tonnes, 3 percent above the high level of 2011. By contrast, the 2012 wheat production is forecast at 209 000 tonnes, or 4 percent less than the reduced level of 2011 mainly as a result of a decrease in plantings in response to the low level of domestic prices.
Freezing temperatures in June were recorded in the departments of Cochabamba, La Paz, Oruro, Potosí and Tarija. It is estimated that more than 9 000 families were affected by the cold wave.
Cereal import in 2012/13 marketing season to decline
Cereal imports for the 2012/13 marketing season (May/April) are forecast at 355 000 tonnes or 6 percent below last year’s level as a result of the higher output expected in 2012. However, wheat imports are likely to increase owing to the decline forecast in 2012 production.
Maize and rice prices below last year’s level
Maize prices have dropped sharply over the last year, reflecting the 2011 good production and the recent harvest of the 2012 main season. In June 2012, maize prices were about 38 percent lower than a year earlier. Prices of wheat flour have remained unvaried in the past months and close to their levels of the previous year. Rice prices increased slightly in June but were still 14 percent lower than in June last year.