Reference Date: 02-April-2024

Unfavourable prospects for 2024 cereal production due to dry weather conditions

Harvesting of the 2024 main maize crop, which accounts for about 75 percent of the annual production, is ongoing. Production is anticipated to be below average, as moisture deficits at planting time in late 2023 caused a reduction in sowings. Dry weather conditions continued in early February, affecting yields. According to FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), as of end‑February 2024, immediately before the start of harvesting operations, large areas of cropland in the key cereal producing department of Santa Cruz were affected by dryness (ASI map). Increased precipitation amounts between mid‑February and mid‑March caused some flooding and affected crops in localized areas of La Paz, Cochabamba and Oruro departments. According to the Ministry of Rural Development, the impact was not significant .

Planting operations of 2024 main sorghum and wheat crops will start in April, followed by sowing of the minor maize crop in May. Below‑average precipitation amounts are forecast between April and August over most parts of the country, including Santa Cruz Department, likely limiting the extent of sowings and lower yield potentials.

Cereal import requirements forecast at below‑average levels in 2023/24

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June), mostly wheat, are anticipated at a slightly below‑average level of 330 000 tonnes. The low level mainly reflects an expansion in wheat grain reserves held by the public Entity for Food Production Support (Empresa de Apoyo a la Producción de Alimentos [EMAPA]) from 66 000 tonnes in 2022 to 100 000 tonnes in 2023, together with a year‑on‑year increase in wheat output. Import requirement levels in 2023/24 represent a sharp increase from 2022/23, when ample carryover stocks from large wheat imports in previous years and high international quotations reduced imports.

Retail prices of rice 20 percent higher year‑on‑year in February 2024

Retail prices of rice rose throughout the second half of 2023 due to the year‑on‑year decline in paddy production as a result of dry weather conditions. During the first two months of 2024, rice prices were largely stable and were 20 percent above their year‑earlier levels. Prices of wheat flour weakened during the last quarter of 2023 with declining international quotations. As of February 2024, prices were slightly below those a year earlier. Prices of chicken meat declined between October 2023 and February 2024, on account of reduced production costs, including yellow maize, the main ingredient for feed, production if which rose year‑on‑year in 2023.

In February 2024, the annual food inflation rate was estimated at 4 percent, marginally down from a year before (4.6 percent). The price increases were partially limited by subsidies applied to fuel and bread. Prices of gasoline and diesel have been fixed at BOB 3.7/litre (equivalent to USD 0.5/litre) since 2010. Prices of a loaf of bread (pan de batalla) are also pegged at BOB 0.5 since 2016.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .