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Reference Date: 24-November-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. 2014 wheat harvest anticipated at record level

  2. 2014 maize production remains high

  3. Maize exports forecast to decrease in 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

  4. Wheat flour prices reach multi-year lows, yellow maize prices increase seasonally

2014 wheat harvest anticipated at record level

Harvest of the 2014 wheat crop is almost concluded. Early official estimates point to a bumper crop of almost 7.5 million tonnes, or 30 percent above last year’s good level and record, despite unfavourable weather conditions during the cropping season negatively affecting yields in some area and caused localized crop losses. This year’s high production mainly reflects increased plantings driven by high domestic and regional prices.

2014 maize production remains high

Harvest of the main 2014 second season “safrinha” maize crop is virtually concluded. Preliminary official estimates of the 2014 aggregate production (first season and “safrinha” crop) point to an output of almost 78.4 million tonnes, an upward revision from previous estimates, which mainly reflects higher than expected yields during the “safrinha” season. At the estimated level, the 2014 maize production is 3 percent below last year’s record crop, but still well above the average of the past five years.

Planting of the first season 2015 maize crop is virtually concluded. Preliminary estimates point to a reduction in the area planted of 4 to 9 percent compared to the same season last year. This mainly reflects delays in sowing operations due to severe dry weather, particularly in the main producing region of Mato Grosso, and low prices.

Maize exports forecast to decrease in the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

Maize exports in the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March) are forecast to decline by 10 percent from last year’s record level, driven by the anticipated decline in the 2014 production, as well as strong competition from the United States of America and Argentina, Exports, however, are expected to remain still well above the country’s five-year average.

Wheat flour prices reach multi-year lows, yellow maize prices increase seasonally

Wheat prices in October declined by 11 percent from their levels in September reaching multi-year lows. This reflects the bumper 2014 crop and adequate import supplies. Prices are 42 percent below their level in October 2103.

By contrast, yellow maize prices seasonally increased 5 percent in October. Prices were also supported by strong export demand, due to the depreciation of the local currency. However, reflecting ample stocks from the good 2014 harvest prices remain 3 percent below their levels from a year earlier.









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 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
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