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Reference Date: 19-July-2016

HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Cereal production in 2016 forecast at lowest level in five years

  2. Cereal imports for 2016 marketing year to increase to their highest level in five years

  3. Yellow maize prices sharply decline during first half of July; wheat and wheat flour prices increase

Cereal production in 2016 forecast at lowest level in five years

Harvesting of the 2016 second season safrinha maize crop is well advance and latest forecasts point to a 20 percent reduction in output relative to the same season last year. The sharp reduction is a result of the severe dry weather, associated with the El Niño phenomenon, which impacted the crop during the growing season, resulting in significantly reduced yields in major producing states of Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso. The 2016 aggregate maize output (first and second season harvests) is now anticipated at 70.1 million tonnes, a downward revision of more than 3 million tonnes from the previous estimate, as the effects of the drought on yields were more severe than anticipated earlier. By contrast, wheat production for 2016 is forecast to increase 18 percent, on account of higher projected yields, as crop development continues to be relatively favourable. Total cereal production in 2016 is expected at 89.2 million tonnes, the lowest level in the past five years.

Cereal imports for 2016 marketing year to increase to their highest level in five years

Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year are anticipated at 9.5 million tonnes, the highest level in five years. This mainly reflects an increase in maize imports, which are forecast at a record high of 2 million tonnes. A tighter supply outlook following high exports earlier in the year, the anticipated reduction in this year’s harvest and strong demand from the feed sector have led the Government to authorize maize imports from outside the Mercorsur at a zero tariff rate.

Yellow maize prices sharply decline during first half of July, wheat and wheat flour prices increase

Prices of yellow maize during the first half of July declined sharply from their record highs, as new supplies entering the market from the ongoing harvest and imports, pressured prices downward. However, prices remained almost 71 percent above their level a year earlier, reflecting the generally tight supply situation.

Prices of wheat grain and wheat flour in the first half of July continued their increasing trend from the previous month, supported by tight supplies, particularly of high quality wheat, and remained well above their levels during the same period last year.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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