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Reference Date: 31-March-2016

HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Maize output in 2016 to remain at bumper level despite declining somewhat

  2. Maize exports to decline from record levels in 2016/17 marketing year

  3. Yellow maize prices reached record levels in March, wheat flour price stable

Maize output in 2016 to remain at bumper level despite declining somewhat

Harvesting of the 2016 first season maize crop is underway. The latest official forecast points to a reduction in production relative to the same season last year of almost 4 percent to 28.4 million tonnes. Severe dry weather, associated to the El Niño phenomena, in major producing states such as Parana and parts of Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso reduced sowings. Lower maize prices relative to soybeans also contributed to the reduction. Planting of the 2016 second season safrinha maize crop, to be harvested from June, concluded in February. The area sown to this crop is estimated to have remained relatively unchanged from the same season last year. Preliminary official forecasts point to output declining some 3.5 percent from the 2015 safrinha crop, mainly reflecting lower yields due to lower rains at the beginning of the season. Based on the progress of the first season harvest and the early 2016 safrinha prospects, the aggregate 2016 maize production is initially forecast at 82.7 million tonnes some 3.5 percent down from last year’s record level.

Maize exports to decline from record level in 2016/17 marketing year

Maize exports in the 2016/17 marketing year (March/February) are tentatively forecast at 30 million tonnes, some 13 percent down from last year’s record level but still above the country’s five-year average. The decline in export levels mainly reflect lower demand, particularly from China, despite the strong depreciation of the local currency making Brazilian maize competitive in the international market.

Yellow maize prices reached record levels in March, wheat flour price stable

In March, domestic yellow maize prices reached a record level, in nominal terms, despite the record 2015 crop and the anticipated bumper 2016 harvest. Current price levels are being sustained by a sharp depreciation of the Brazilian Real and high inflation.

Wheat flour prices decreased moderately in March, mainly reflecting adequate levels of imports. However, prices were some 4 percent above their year-earlier levels reflecting the high rates of inflation and the weaker currency.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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