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Reference Date: 27-May-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Improved prospects for the 2014 second season “safrinha” maize crop, but annual production to decline from last year’s record level

  2. Production of 2014 wheat forecast to reach record levels

  3. Maize exports are forecast to decline for the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

  4. Wheat flour prices decline from record levels in April

Improved prospects for the 2014 second season “safrinha” maize crop, but annual production to decline from last year’s record level

Harvest of the main 2014 second season “safrinha” maize crop is about to begin. Earlier forecasts for the harvest have been revised upwards due to higher than expected plantings and better yield estimates. Despite this revision, the “safrinha” maize crop, at an expected level of 43.5 million tonnes, would be 6 percent below last year’s bumper crop. The reduction in production mainly reflects lower plantings in response to low prices. By contrast, production estimates for the first season harvest, which is virtually concluded, were revised downward to 31.3 million tonnes, due to lower than anticipated yields caused by dry weather earlier in the season. The 2014 aggregate (first and second seasons) maize production is forecast at 74.8 million tonnes or 7 percent below last year’s record high, but still well above the average level.

Production of 2014 wheat forecast to reach record levels

Planting of the 2014 wheat crop is virtually concluded. Supported by high domestic and regional prices, coupled with strong demand, area planted increased by 13 percent from 2013. Assuming normal weather, initial official forecasts point to a production of 6.9 million tonnes, significantly above last year’s level and the highest output in ten years.

Maize exports are forecast to decline for the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

Driven by anticipated lower aggregate production in 2014, as well as strong competition from the United States and Argentina, maize exports for the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March), are initially forecast to decline by 4 percent from the previous marketing year. This level of exports, however, is still well above the country’s five-year average.

Wheat flour prices at near record levels in May

Wheat flour prices in May strengthened by about 3 percent from their levels in April and were close to their record highs of March. However, prices were still well above their levels of a year earlier due to a reduced 2013 wheat output at the subregional level and lower export availabilities from Argentina, its traditional supplier. Wholesale wheat prices also went up in May and were well above their levels from a year earlier.

Yellow maize prices declined slightly in May with the ongoing 2014 second season harvest but remained almost 20 percent higher than a year earlier supported by expectations of a lower output, relative to last year’s record levels.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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