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Reference Date: 15-July-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Favourable prospects for the 2014 second season maize crop

  2. A bumper 2014 wheat crop expected

  3. Maize exports forecast to decrease in the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

  4. Prices of wheat flour and yellow maize declined in June but higher than a year earlier

Favourable prospects for the 2014 second season maize crop

Harvest of the main 2014 second season “safrinha” maize crop is well advanced. Production forecasts have been revised upwards, due to a lower than earlier anticipated decline in plantings and better yields. The output is put at 45 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s same season bumper crop. The first season maize harvest, which concluded in June, was estimated at good levels despite lower than expected yields because of dry weather earlier in the season. The 2014 aggregate (first and second seasons) maize production is forecast at 76.2 million tonnes, 5 percent below last year’s record high, but still well above the average level.

A bumper 2014 wheat crop expected

Planting of the 2014 wheat crop was concluded in June, under generally favourable weather conditions. Supported by high domestic and regional prices, the area planted is estimated more than 20 percent higher than the good level of 2013. Assuming normal weather conditions prevail in the coming months, official forecasts point to a production of 7.8 million tonnes, significantly above last year’s level and the highest output in ten years.

Maize exports forecast to decrease in then 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

Driven by the anticipated decline in this year’s aggregate production, as well as strong competition from the United States and Argentina, maize exports in the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March), are forecast to decline by 4 percent from the previous marketing year. This level of exports, however, is still well above the country’s five-year average.

Prices of wheat flour and yellow maize declined in June but higher than a year earlier

Wholesale wheat flour prices decreased by 6 percent in June compared to the previous month, following wheat shipments from the United States and Argentina. To guarantee local supplies, the country has suspended import tariffs on non-Mercosur wheat until mid-August. Yellow maize prices also decreased in June as new-crop supplies from the ongoing harvest reached markets. Better than expected outputs contributed to the downward pressure. Rice prices remained stable, after significant increases in previous months. Overall, however, cereal prices –in nominal terms- remained above their year-earlier levels, particularly for wheat flour.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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