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Reference Date: 30-December-2015

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production for 2015 reaches record level

  2. Sowing of 2016 first season maize crop reduced by dry weather conditions and high stock levels

  3. Maize exports forecast at a record for 2016 marketing year (April/March)

  4. Yellow maize and wheat flour prices increase sharply in November

Cereal production for 2015 reaches record level

Cereal output for 2015 is preliminarily estimated at a record level of 107 million tonnes, 6 percent up from last year’s good level, marking the fourth consecutive year of increase. This mainly reflects higher maize and rice output, as sowings and yields for both crops increased considerably. By contrast, wheat output is set at 6.1 million tonnes, a moderate decline from last year’s high level but remains well above the country’s five-year average. The decline in wheat production is mainly the result of lower yields, following below‑average rainfall during the season.

Sowing of the 2016 first season maize crop is expected to decline due to dry weather and high stock levels

Sowing of the 2016 first season maize crop is virtually concluded. Severe dry weather, associated to the El Niño phenomena, in major producing states such as Parana and parts of Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso have reportedly delayed planting operations and reduced the area planted. Preliminary official estimates, as of December, point to a contraction in sowings of 7 percent compared to last year. The low price of maize relative to soybeans and high stock levels, also dissuaded farmers from increasing area planted to maize this season.

Maize exports forecast at a record for 2015/16 marketing year (March/February)

Maize exports in the 2015/16 marketing year (March/February) are forecast at a record level of 29 million tonnes, reflecting ample stocks and supported by the strong depreciation of the local currency.

Yellow maize and wheat flour prices increased sharply in November

In November seasonal yellow maize price increases were strengthened by the weak national currency and solid export demand. An anticipated reduction in plantings for the 2016 first season crop also provided support. Prices were more than 20 percent above year-earlier levels.

Wheat flour prices rose sharply in November, supported by this year’s lower harvest, the weak national currency which has increased the cost of imports, and high inflation rates. However, prices were only moderately higher than their level from a year earlier.











Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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