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Reference Date: 12-September-2016

HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Cereal production in 2016 forecast at lowest level in five years

  2. Cereal imports for 2016 marketing year forecast at high level

  3. Cereal prices increased in August; maize and wheat grain prices sharply above year‑earlier levels

Cereal production in 2016 forecast at lowest level in five years

Harvesting of the 2016 second season safrinha maize crop is virtually concluded. Early estimates for the season point to a decline of maize output of almost 24 percent from the same season last year. The sharp reduction is a result of the severe dry weather, associated with the El Niño phenomenon, which impacted the crop during the growing season, resulting in yield declines of 27 percent relative to the same season last year. The 2016 aggregate maize output (first and second season harvests) is now anticipated at 67.9 million tonnes, a downward revision of 3 percent from previous expectations. By contrast, wheat production for 2016, which will be harvested from September, is forecast to increase 16 percent, on account of higher projected yields, as conditions remain particularly favourable for crop development. Total cereal production in 2016 is expected at 86.9 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2011.

Cereal imports for 2016/17 marketing year forecast at high level

Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year are anticipated close to 9.5 million tonnes, the second highest level in a decade. This mainly reflects an expected increase in maize imports during the marketing year (March/February), which are forecast at a record high of 2 million tonnes. A tighter supply outlook, following high exports earlier in the year, the anticipated reduction in this year’s harvest and strong demand from the feed sector, have led the Government to authorize maize imports from outside the Mercorsur at a zero tariff rate. By contrast, wheat imports are anticipated to decline by almost 8 percent and reach 6 million tonnes during the marketing year (September/August), as a result of the favourable prospects of this year’s crop.

Cereal prices increase in August; maize and wheat grain prices sharply above year‑earlier levels

In Brazil, maize prices increased slightly in August after the decline of the previous month due to the further downward revision of the 2016 second season maize output, affected by dry weather. The national average maize price in August was about 90 percent higher than a year earlier, reflecting the generally tight supply situation.

Prices of wheat grain and wheat flour remained relatively unchanged, after the increase of the previous months, and were well above their year‑earlier levels due to the tight domestic supplies, particularly of high quality wheat.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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