Reference Date: 28-September-2023

Cereal production in 2023 expected at record level due to large plantings

Harvesting of the 2023 main season maize crop was recently completed and production is officially estimated at record high of 102 million tonnes, more than 40 percent above the previous five‑year average. The bumper harvest reflects well above‑average plantings and excellent yields. The planted area has been on the increase since 2018 as farmers responded positively to the strong demand by the domestic feed industry and importing countries. According to official estimates, the 2023 aggregate maize production, including an above‑average minor crop harvested in the March to May period, sets a new record of about 132 million tonnes.

Harvesting of the 2023 wheat crop is ongoing and production is officially forecast at 10.8 million tonnes, near the 2022 record level. The large output in 2023, expected at nearly 50 percent above average, is due to large plantings that rose substantially since 2022 following an upsurge of domestic prices. Despite current favourable crop conditions in the key producing southern region, above‑average rainfall amounts forecast in the October to December period could hamper harvesting operations and curtail final yields.

The harvest of the 2023 paddy crop was completed in May and production is officially estimated at 10 million tonnes, about 10 percent below the previous five‑year average. This is the result of a sustained contraction in plantings since 2006, when farmers started to shift to more remunerative maize and soybean crops.

Planting operations of 2024 paddy and minor maize crops ongoing

Planting of the 2024 paddy and minor maize crops are underway at a slow pace due to recent heavy rains in the key producing southern region. Official forecasts point to a 10‑pecent year‑on‑year increase in paddy plantings, mainly reflecting elevated domestic prices. By contrast, the 2024 aggregate area sown to maize is forecast at 21.2 million hectares, 5 percent lower than the 2023 record level, as a result of low‑price levels in domestic and international markets. Despite the year‑on‑year decline, 2024 maize sowings are expected to remain above the five‑year average.

Cereal exports forecast to set new record in 2023/24 marketing year

Exports of maize, the country’s major exportable cereal, are forecast at record 51 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year (March/February), more than 50 percent above average. This is mainly due to the ample exportable surplus of maize, reflecting the record production expected in 2023. Similarly, the abundant supply of the 2023 wheat crop is forecast to result in well above‑average exports in 2023/24. By contrast, below‑average exports of rice are forecast in 2023 (January/December) as a result of the low domestic availability. In aggregate, cereal exports are forecast at a record of 55.5 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year.

Ample market supplies of wheat and yellow maize exert downward pressure on prices

Wholesale prices of wheat have been declining since August 2022 due to improved market supplies from the 2022 bumper harvest. Recently, favourable production prospects for the 2023 harvest added downward pressure on prices. Prices of maize decreased sharply between April and August 2023 to lower year‑on‑year levels, reflecting ample availabilities from the 2023 record harvest. Regarding rice, prices rose sharply in August in the key producing state of Rio Grande do Sul, in line with international trends following the export ban of non‑basmati rice in India. Additional upward pressure on prices was provided by the strengthening of the national currency and larger year‑on‑year exports in the first eight months of the year. Prices were up from their August 2022 levels, driven by tight supplies after two consecutive years of below‑average harvests.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .