Reference Date: 29-March-2024

Production prospects for 2024 winter wheat crops generally favourable

Planting of the 2024 winter wheat crop, accounting for about 90 percent of the annual output, finalized in October 2023 and the area planted is estimated at a near‑average level of 22.3 million hectares. Crops have recently broken dormancy in northern parts of the country, while they are already at tillering to jointing stages of development in eastern and central parts, and production prospects are generally favourable. Planting of the minor spring wheat crop is ongoing under overall favourable weather conditions and its harvest is expected to start in July 2024.

Above‑average cereal output estimated in 2023

The 2023 cropping season concluded in November 2023 and aggregate cereal output is estimated at an above‑average level of 641 million tonnes. Maize output is estimated at 288.8 million tonnes, 9 percent above the five‑year average, due to large sowings driven by the strong demand of the feed industry and above‑average yields. In North China Plain, where about 80 percent of the maize is grown, above‑average yields were obtained due to generally favourable weather conditions. Some localized crop losses occurred in southern areas due to dry weather conditions in May and June 2023as well as in northeastern areas due to heavy rains and strong winds brought by several storms and typhoons between July and September 2023. Paddy production is estimated at 206.6 million tonnes, reflecting yield improvements relative to last year’s weather‑affected levels, which were offset by a contraction in area planted. However, heavy rains and strong winds, due to several storms and typhoons between July and September 2023, caused localized crop losses in northeastern producing areas, especially in Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning provinces. Production of wheat is estimated at a near‑average level of 136.6 million tonnes.

Above‑average cereal imports forecast in 2023/24

Total cereal imports in the 2023/24 marketing year are forecast at a well above‑average level of 60.3 million tonnes, primarily reflecting the strong demand for coarse grains by the domestic feed industry. Imports of maize are forecast at a well above‑average level of 27.5 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year (October/September). Barley and sorghum imports are forecast at high levels of 12 million and 7.2 million tonnes, respectively. Wheat imports in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 10.7 million tonnes, 28 percent above the five‑year average as wheat grain is often used as feed in substitution of maize.

Domestic prices of rice and wheat flour in February 2024 close to previous year’s level

Wholesale prices of indica and japonica rice, widely consumed varieties, were generally stable between November 2023 and February 2024, reflecting an adequate market availability. Similarly, an adequate domestic availability has kept wholesale prices of wheat flour stable since May 2023. Overall, in February 2024, domestic prices of rice and wheat flour were close to the previous year’s level.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .