Reference Date: 15-March-2024

Main 2024 cereal crops under good vegetative conditions

The 2024 main season maize and paddy crops are currently at flowering and grain‑filling stages, and satellite imagery indicates favourable crop conditions in the key producing provinces of Los Rios, Manabi and Guayas. Planted area to the main maize crop is estimated to be near the average, which represents a slight decline compared to the 2023 main season, mainly due to lower year‑on‑year maize prices. By contrast, high levels of rice prices prompted above‑average sowings of the main paddy crop. Below‑average rainfall amounts forecast for the March to May period over the main producing coastal areas are expected to have just a minor impact on yields as crops will be already at maturating and harvesting stages. However, soil moisture deficits may curtail the extent of sowings of the minor crops, to be planted from June 2024.

Above‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2023/24 marketing year

Cereal import requirements are forecast at a above‑average level of 1.64 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June). This represents a year‑on‑year decline as a result of ample carryover stocks from the large imports of wheat in 2022/23. The above‑average import requirements mainly reflect growing domestic demand for wheat for food and feed use, especially by shrimp and poultry farming.

Rice prices higher year‑on‑year in February 2024, while prices of wheat flour and maize below year‑earlier levels

Prices of rice rose sharply between June and October 2023, due to the reduced 2023 main season output, affected by excessive rains during the harvesting period. Since November 2023, prices have been overall stable, as increased imports between September and November improved market supplies. As of February 2024, prices of rice were between 30 and 50 percent higher year‑on‑year across major markets. In order to increase domestic availability and stabilize rice prices, the government suspended import duties on rice (up to 63 246 tonnes, which represents about 65 percent above the five‑year average) from 17 July to 31 December 2023.

Prices of wheat flour were also stable since September 2023 and at lower year‑on‑year levels, reflecting decreasing international wheat quotations. Similarly, prices of yellow maize were steady between October 2023 and February 2024, and were below their year‑earlier levels, due to the ample local supply from the above‑average harvest attained in 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .