Reference Date: 03-January-2023

Drier‑than‑average weather conditions affecting 2023 winter crops

Planting of the 2023 winter crops, mainly wheat, to be harvested from July 2023, took place last November under drier‑than‑average weather conditions. Cumulative precipitation amounts in November were about 30 percent lower than the Long‑term average (LTA). As of mid‑December, soil moisture levels were low, particularly in western and central regions. According to prevailing weather forecasts, there is high likelihood that below‑average precipitation levels may continue between December 2022 and February 2023, hindering crop establishment and development.

Cereal output in 2022 estimated at near‑average level

Harvesting of the 2022 cereal crops, mainly maize and wheat, finalized last September. The aggregate cereal output is estimated at a near‑average level of 377 000 tonnes, including 210 000 tonnes of maize and 110 000 tonnes of wheat, due to near‑average plantings and overall favourable weather conditions during the season.

Total cereal import requirements in 2022/23 forecast at near‑average level

Total cereal import requirements in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a near‑average level of 733 000 tonnes. Import requirements of wheat, which account on average for about 90 percent of the aggregate cereal import volume, are forecast at a near‑average level of 600 000 tonnes, on account of the harvest of a large output in 2021 and of a near‑average production in 2022.

Prices of wheat flour and potatoes well above year‑earlier levels

The national average retail prices of wheat flour increased steeply between December 2021 and June 2022. Prices remained overall stable in the following months, amid the introduction of a one‑year ban on wheat exports on 4 July 2022. In November 2022, prices were about 25 percent higher than a year before, due to increases in costs of production and transport.

Prices of potatoes, another important staple food, decreased sharply between June and August 2022, following the harvest of new tubers. Between September and November 2022, prices seasonally increased and reached levels well above those recorded a year before. The yearly increase is mainly due to the low domestic availability following the reduced harvest in 2022 and the low imported volumes.

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