Reference Date: 14-July-2023

Dry weather conditions in key producing northern region curtail production prospects of 2023 main season maize

The 2023 main season maize crop is currently at vegetative and flowering stages. According to satellite imagery, crop conditions are unfavourable in the main producing departments of Petén and Alta Verapaz (red/orange areas in the ASI map), due to below‑average precipitation amounts during the second quarter of 2023, associated with the El Niño phenomenon. In these areas, dry and hot weather conditions are forecast to persist between July and September, with negative effects on the main season production. In the rest of the country, where average crop conditions are observed, weather forecasts point to average to above‑average rainfall amounts in the July‑September period, providing conducive conditions for crop development. The seasonal output is preliminarily forecast at a below‑average level, as dry weather conditions resulted in a contraction in plantings and affected crop yields in the key producing northern areas.

In order to mitigate the impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural livelihoods, the government expanded the coverage of agricultural insurance from 40 000 beneficiaries in 2022 to 100 000 smallholder farmers in 2023 . The insurance is designed to pay up to GTQ 3 000 (about USD 385) to compensate for the crop losses caused by drought or excessive rains. In 2023, the government continues to distribute certified maize or bean seeds, to nearly 100 000 smallholder farmers in El Progreso, Sacatepéquez, Chimaltenango, Escuintla, Sololá, Suchitepéquez and Guatemala departments.

Wholesale prices of black beans more than 10 percent higher year‑on‑year in June

Wholesale prices of black beans rose in June for the second consecutive month, reflecting the seasonal decline in supplies, and they were more than 10 percent above their year‑earlier levels. This reflects persistent high production costs as well as lower year‑on‑year imports during the first four months of 2023.

After declining in April and May with harvests from the northern region, prices of white maize rose in June, as concerns over the impact of dry weather conditions on crop germination and development provided upward pressure. Maize prices in June were slightly lower year‑on‑year when the upsurge of fertilizer costs drove the sharp increases in prices.

Prices of rice have been generally declining since December 2022, reflecting the recent weakening of export prices in the United States of America, the country’s main rice supplier and were near their June 2022 values. Diversification of rice imports from origins with lower prices than the United States of America also provided downward pressure.

Cereal import requirements expected at high levels in 2023/24 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are expected at an above‑average level of 2.5 million tonnes. Cereal imports have been increasing steadily over the last decade due to strong demand for yellow maize by the feed industry, combined with the sustained demand of wheat‑based food products in line with an increasing population.

About 4.3 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity in 2023 lean season due to elevated food prices

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 4.3 million people are estimated to face acute food insecurity (classified under IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) during the June‑August 2023 lean season, slightly down from the 4.6 million people in the June‑September 2022 period. Despite the year‑on‑year improvement, about 24 percent of the analyzed population is expected to experience high levels of food insecurity as a result of elevated prices of food, fuel and fertilizers. The situation might be compounded by the adverse effects of ongoing dry weather conditions on crop production. Although food inflation has decelerated since March 2023, the annual inflation rate of food items remained at high levels of 11.2 percent in May 2023. High prices of food and agricultural inputs have diminished the purchasing power of vulnerable households and producers, affecting their access to food and agricultural livelihoods.

Since the beginning of the year to mid‑June, the Ministry of Agriculture has distributed a food package, including rice, beans, maize flour, etc. to 389 000 people . The provision was carried out under the Food Assistance Programme dedicated to the most vulnerable households as well as the Alimentos por Acciones (Food for actions) Programme, which aims to engage households in community work and prevent the deterioration of their food security situation.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .