Reference Date: 07-June-2023
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Planting operations of 2023 main maize crop ongoing
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Cereal import requirements expected at high levels in 2022/23 marketing year
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Prices of staple beans, rice and maize higher year‑on‑year in April
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High levels of acute food insecurity to persist in 2023
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Planting operations of 2023 main maize crop ongoing
Planting operations of the 2023 main season maize crop is ongoing, amid generally adequate soil moisture levels in the key maize producing departments of Olancho and El Paraíso. By contrast, below‑average rainfall amounts in April and May resulted in dry conditions in northern areas. Weather forecasts indicate below‑average rainfall amounts and elevated temperatures in the June to August period, with adverse effects on crop yields. In particular, dry and hot weather conditions are expected in the southern Dry Corridor area as well as Yoro and Atlántida departments in the north.
Fertilizer imports during the first quarter of 2023 were 7 percent lower year‑on‑year, after the below‑average imports recorded in 2022. Domestic prices of fertilizers in end‑May remained well above the average, albeit lower year‑on‑year due to recent declines in international quotations. The reduced imports and thus the low availability of fertilizers in domestic markets are likely to maintain fertilizer prices at high levels. If the use of fertilizers is constrained due to high prices, farmers may have to lower the application, with negative effects on crop yields.
In order to improve production capacity of smallholder farmers, the Secretary of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) started distributing free seeds (maize, beans, sorghum or rice), fertilizers, herbicides and fungicides in mid‑May. The SAG targets at least 300 000 smallholder famers, with a total budget of HNL 1 billion (about USD 40 million).
Cereal import requirements expected at high levels in 2022/23 marketing year
Cereal import requirements in the 2022/23 marketing year (September/August) are expected at an above‑average level of 1.3 million tonnes. The high needs reflect the increasing consumption of wheat and rice in line with population growth and the sustained demand for yellow maize by the feed industry.
Prices of staple beans, rice and maize higher year‑on‑year in April
Prices of red beans have generally increased since October 2022 and, in April 2023, they were more than 40 percent higher year‑on‑year. The high level of prices reflects
the decline in production in 2022, as well as elevated production and transport costs. High quotations of beans in Nicaragua, where the country sources on average about 10 percent of the annual domestic supply, provided additional upward pressure on prices. Similarly, prices of white maize rose throughout the first four months of 2023 in line with seasonal trends and were slightly above their year‑earlier levels. Prices of rice have been stable since August 2022 and, in April 2023, they were nearly 15 percent up from a year earlier. This is due to sharp increases in the previous months, on account of rising quotations of rice in the United States of America, the country’s main rice supplier.
In general, prices of most food commodities have been on the rise since end‑2021, with the annual inflation rate of food estimated at 15.8 percent in April 2023, limiting the purchasing power of the most vulnerable households.
High levels of acute food insecurity to persist in 2023
According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the population facing acute food insecurity (classified under IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) is estimated at 2.34 million people during the March‑May 2023 period,
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marginally down from the 2.36 million people in the same period in 2022. The projection points to 2.42 million people (25 percent of the analyzed population) experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity during the lean season June to August 2023, slightly lower compared to the 2.64 million people a year before. The year‑on‑year improvement mainly reflects recovering economic activities in the tourism, textile and agricultural sectors, albeit slowly. The persistent high levels of food insecurity are mainly due to the elevated prices of food and agricultural inputs, constraining the access to food and the extent of sowings. Excessive rains in localized areas in the northern region in the second half of 2022 affected livelihoods of palm and banana producers, especially in the Gracias a Dios Department.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS)
https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/
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FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool
https://fpma.fao.org/
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FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring
https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/
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Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
https://www.ipcinfo.org/
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