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Country Briefs

  Indonesia

Reference Date: 05-June-2017

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Aggregate rice production in 2017 forecast to increase from last year’s good level

  2. Total cereal imports in 2017/18 forecast to decrease slightly from last year’s average level

  3. Rice prices declining since March 2017 and close to their year-earlier levels

Aggregate rice production in 2017 forecast to increase from last year’s good level

Harvesting of the 2017, mostly irrigated, main rainy season paddy crop is nearing completion, with the bulk already harvested between February and April. Abundant precipitation, coupled with adequate water supply for irrigation, benefitted planting operations and overall yields. Diverse initiatives have been launched by the Government to support rice production, including the rehabilitation of irrigation channels. However, heavy rains at the beginning of the year triggered localized flooding and landslides in parts of the country, including important paddy-producing areas such as West and Central Java and parts of western Sumatra. Despite some concerns over the quality of the affected crops, the overall effect on national rice production is expected to be minimal. Based on FAO’s estimates for the already harvested main crops and assuming favourable weather conditions during the ongoing 2017 off-season, FAO tentatively forecasts the 2017 aggregate paddy production at 74.2 million tonnes, 2 percent above last year’s good level.

Harvesting of the 2017 main season maize crop was completed in March and sowing of the secondary crops is about to start. FAO forecasts the 2017 aggregate maize output at 21 million tonnes, 7 percent above last year’s bumper level. The projected increase is the result of an expansion in plantings in response to strong demand from the domestic feed industry.

Total cereal imports in 2017/18 forecast to decrease slightly from last year’s normal level

The country is one of the biggest importers of cereals in South-East Asia. Total cereal imports in the 2017/18 marketing year are forecast at 11.7 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s normal level. The small decrease reflects anticipated reduced rice imports in calendar year 2017, which are foreseen to fall by 33 percent to 800 000 tonnes (milled basis), consistent with the prospects of a larger 2017 crop. By contrast, strong domestic demand is seen to increase slightly wheat imports to a record level of 9.8 million tonnes in 2017/18.

Rice prices declining since March 2017

The average price of medium quality rice, the main staple in the country, have been decreasing since last March, with improved supplies from the 2017 main season harvest. Overall, rice prices in April were close to their year-earlier levels.