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Reference Date: 10-September-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. The 2014 aggregate rice production forecast slightly below last year’s record level

  2. Cereal imports expected to increase in the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

  3. Rice prices at record levels in August

  4. Overall food security situation satisfactory but localized food insecurity persists

The 2014 aggregate rice production forecast slightly below last year’s record level

Harvesting of the 2014 main (wet) season paddy crop, which accounts for about 95 percent of annual production, was completed by June, while that of the 2014 secondary season crop is expected to start in mid-October and continue into December. Latest official forecasts put this year’s aggregate rice production (including the 2014 main and secondary seasons) at 69.9 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s record level. The expected decrease is the result of a slight contraction in planted area, reflecting a shift from paddy land to other crops, as well as planting disruptions due to floods from mid-January to late February, particularly in parts of West Java.

Harvesting of the 2014 main (rainy) season maize crop was completed in April and that of the 2014 secondary (dry) season crop will start in mid-October and will be completed in December. The 2014 aggregate maize output is officially forecast at 18.6 million tonnes, similar to last year’s above-average harvest and slightly below the 2012 record output.

The probability of an El Niño event in the last quarter of the year has been recently lowered to 60 percent. The phenomenon is often associated with below-average precipitation and the past moderate El Niño events resulted in production declines in the country. Depending on the timing and intensity of an eventual El Niño, the 2015 main rainfed paddy crops, which are planted from late October, may be negatively affected by the event.

Cereal imports expected to increase in the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

Indonesia is one of the biggest importers of cereals with quantities of some 11 million tonnes annually. For the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March) wheat imports are forecast close to last year’s record level at 7.4 million tonnes, reflecting sustained demand for the commodity. Similarly, imports of maize are expected to remain high at 2.7 million tonnes. Rice imports in 2014 are anticipated to return to more normal quantities and reach 1.2 million tonnes, some 70 percent above the low level of 2013 following the Government’s self-sufficient policy. Overall, cereal imports for the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March) are thus forecast at 11.4 million tonnes, some 3 percent above the large volume of the previous year and about 14 percent higher than the five-year average.

Rice prices at record levels in August

The average price of medium quality rice increased slightly in August but reached record highs. Prices were above their year earlier levels both in nominal and real terms, supported by the contraction of this year’s paddy output and low imports in previous months.

Overall food security situation satisfactory but localized food insecurity persists

In general, the food security situation in the country continues to be stable and satisfactory. Recently, Indonesia graduated from the list of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDC) on the basis of net food-exporter and on income criteria. However, high food prices are affecting the food security situation of vulnerable low-income groups of the population.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2005, 2005, 2000, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1998, 1998, 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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