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Reference Date: 19-May-2015


  1. Aggregate 2015 rice production forecast to increase from last year’s bumper level

  2. Concern about negative impact of El Niño event on 2015 second season cereal production

  3. Cereal imports forecast to decrease in 2015/16 marketing year (April/March)

  4. Rice prices declined in April but still at near-record levels

Aggregate 2015 rice production forecast to increase from last year’s bumper level

Harvesting of the 2015 main (rainfed) season paddy crop, which accounts for about 95 percent of the annual production, is well advanced. Following a slow start of the 2014/15 rainy season (November-March), which delayed planting activities particularly over the main producing areas of Java Island, rains improved across most of the country since December, allowing plantings to pick up and benefitting development of earlier-planted crops. Subsequently, favourable weather conditions, coupled with diverse initiatives launched by the Government to support production, including the rehabilitation of irrigation channels, distribution of subsidized seeds and fertilizers, have led to an anticipated increase in yields of the main season. In addition, assuming a slight expansion in area planted for the 2015 secondary (dry) season rice crop, to be planted between June and August, FAO forecasts the 2015 aggregate rice production at a record level of 73 million tonnes, up 3 percent from last year’s bumper output.

Harvesting of the 2015 main (rainy) season maize crop was completed in April and sowing of the secondary (dry) season crop is expected to start in June and continue into August. FAO forecasts the 2015 aggregate maize output at 19.5 million tonnes, some 2 percent above last year’s good level. The projected increase is the result of a slight expansion in plantings, in response to higher demand from the domestic feed industry and higher yields.

In early March, reports from the main meteorological and oceanic institutions declared the onset of a moderate El Niño event. Climate models point to an approximately 90 percent of El Niño through the northern hemisphere 2015 summer and a greater than 80 percent chance that it will last through 2015. The high probability of an El Niño event this year causes concern about cereal production in Indonesia, as the phenomenon is often associated with below-average precipitation which may result in reduced yields of the 2015 secondary season cereal crops and/or affect planting and yields of the 2016 main rainfed paddy crops.

Cereal imports forecast to increase in 2015/16 marketing year (April/March)

Indonesia is one of the biggest importers of cereals in the Far East Asia. Overall, cereal imports for the 2015/16 marketing year (April/March) are estimated at 11.5 million tonnes, some 3 percent below the large volume of the previous year. This is mainly attributed to an anticipated 25 percent decrease in 2015 rice imports to 900 000 tonnes, as a result of the favourable outlook for the 2015 rice production. Wheat imports are set to remain at last year’s record level of 7.5 million tonnes, reflecting sustained demand for the commodity. Similarly, imports of maize are anticipated to remain close to the 2014/15 high level and reach 3 million tonnes.

Rice prices at near-record levels in April but declining

The average price of medium quality rice, the main staple in the country, were at near-record levels in April after the sustained increase of the past months, supported by higher procurement prices since January, coupled with delays in the distribution of rice through the Government’s "Rice for the Poor" (Raskin) programme. In order to offset price increases, the Government has distributed nearly 500 000 tonnes of rice since January. Quotations declined in April with the arrival of new supplies from the 2015 main season harvest, estimated at a good level, despite some delays in the season, which had previously provided some support to prices.

Relevant links:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2005, 2005, 2000, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1998, 1998, 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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