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Reference Date: 24-July-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. The 2014 aggregate rice production forecast close to last year’s record level

  2. Cereal imports expected to increase in the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

  3. Rice prices generally stable but at high levels

  4. Overall food security situation satisfactory but localized food insecurity persists

The 2014 aggregate rice production forecast close to last year’s record level

Harvesting of the 2014 main (wet) season paddy crop, which accounts for about 95 percent of annual production, was completed by June, while planting of the 2014 secondary season crop is currently underway and will continue into August. Recently released official estimates put this year’s aggregate rice production (including the 2014 main and secondary seasons) at 69.9 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s record level but the second best on record. The expected decrease is the result of a slight contraction in planted area, reflecting a shift from paddy land to other crops, as well as planting disruptions due to floods from mid-January to late February, particularly in parts of West Java.

Harvesting of the 2014 main (rainy) season maize crop was completed in April and sowing of the 2014 secondary (dry) season crop is ongoing. The 2014 aggregate maize output is officially anticipated at 18.5 million tonnes, similar to last year’s above-average harvest and slightly below the 2012 record output.

The high probability (65 percent) of an El Niño event in the last quarter of this year causes concern about cereal production in Indonesia, as the phenomenon is often associated with below-average precipitation and the past moderate El Niño events resulted in production declines in the country. However, based on currently available information, an El Niño phenomenon is still neutral and a weak event appears more likely. Depending on the timing of an eventual El Niño, yields of the 2014 secondary season cereals crops and/or planting of the 2015 main rainfed paddy crops may be negatively affected by the event.

Cereal imports expected to increase in the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

Indonesia is one of the biggest importers of cereals with quantities of some 10 million tonnes annually. For the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March) wheat imports are forecast close to last year’s record level at 7.2 million tonnes, reflecting sustained demand for the commodity. Similarly, imports of maize are forecast at near-record level of 2.9 million tonnes. Rice imports in 2014 are forecast to return to more normal levels and reach 1.2 million tonnes, some 70 percent above the low level of 2013 following the Government’s self-sufficient policy. Total cereal imports for the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March) are thus estimated at 11.5 million tonnes, some 4 percent above the large volume of the previous year and about 15 percent higher than the five-year average.

Rice prices generally stable but at high levels

The average price of medium quality rice were unchanged in June, after some declines in the previous months with the recently-completed 2014 main season paddy harvest. Prices remained above their levels in June 2013, in line with the year-on-year inflation rate (6.7 percent in June). In an attempt to avoid price increases during the month of Ramadan, which began in late June, the country’s state logistic company, BULOG, announced the release of medium quality rice at below market prices.

Overall food security situation satisfactory but localized food insecurity persists

In general, the food security situation in the country continues to be stable and satisfactory. However, access to food for the vulnerable population, remains a major challenge in the eastern parts of the country such as Nusa Tenggara Timur, Nusa Tenggara Barat and Papua provinces. Generally high food prices are further affecting the food security situation of vulnerable low-income groups of the population.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2005, 2005, 2000, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1998, 1998, 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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