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Reference Date: 06-March-2015


  1. Good prospects for 2015 main season rice crop

  2. Aggregate rice production in 2014 estimated slightly below previous year’s record level

  3. Cereal imports expected to increase in 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

  4. Rice prices at record levels in February

Good prospects for 2015 main season rice crop

Harvesting of the 2015 main (wet) season paddy crop is currently ongoing and will continue until mid-July. Over much of the country, including the main crop producing areas of Java and Sulawesi, rainfall was generally above-average between November and late February. However, below-average rains between January and early March over parts of Sumatera Island, particularly the provinces of Riau, Jambi and Sumatera Utara, reduced soil moisture in some parts. Early official forecasts indicate that the aggregate paddy production (including the ongoing 2015 main season, which accounts for about 95 percent of the annual production and the forthcoming 2015 secondary season) is expected to reach 73.4 million tonnes, some 4 percent above last year’s slightly reduced crop. The anticipated increase is mainly attributed to Government support in the rehabilitation of irrigation channels and the distribution of subsidized seeds and fertilizers, as well as the expected increase in planted area.

Aggregate rice production in 2014 estimated slightly below previous year’s record level

Latest official estimates put the 2014 aggregate rice production at 70.6 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s record level. The decrease is the result of a slight contraction in planted area, reflecting a shift from paddy land to other crops, as well as planting disruptions due to floods from mid-January to late February, particularly in parts of West Java.

The 2014 aggregate maize output is officially forecast at 19.1 million tonnes, 3 percent above the 2013 harvest and marginally below the 2012 record output.

Cereal imports estimated to increase in 2014/15 marketing year (April/March)

Indonesia is one of the biggest importers of cereals in the Far East subregion. For the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March) wheat imports are estimated to increase by 3 percent compared to the previous year to a record level of 7.5 million tonnes, reflecting sustained demand for the commodity. Similarly, imports of maize are expected to remain at last year’s high level and reach 3 million tonnes. Rice imports in 2014 are estimated to return to more normal quantities and reach 1.2 million tonnes. Overall, cereal imports for the 2014/15 marketing year (April/March) are estimated at 11.8 million tonnes, some 6 percent above the large volume of the previous year and about 17 percent higher than the five-year average.

Rice prices at record levels in February

The average price of medium quality rice increased for a third consecutive month reaching a record in February, mainly reflecting a delay in the distribution of rice through the Government’s "Rice for the Poor" (Raskin) programme and a 10 percent increase in the Government’s procurement price, after remaining unchanged for three years. In an attempt to stabilize prices, the Government started, on 25 February, to distribute 300 000 tonnes of subsidized rice at IDR 7 400 (about USD 0.57) per kg, about 26 percent below February’s market price.

Relevant links:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2005, 2005, 2000, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1998, 1998, 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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