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Country Briefs

  Indonesia

Reference Date: 13-July-2018

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Favourable production prospects for 2018 cereal crops

  2. Total cereal imports in 2018/19 forecast to surpass previous year’s high level

  3. Prices of rice declined for second consecutive month in April

Favourable production prospects for 2018 cereal crops

Harvesting of the 2018, mostly irrigated, main paddy crop is complete. Overall, rainfall amounts and water availability for irrigation were reported to be adequate throughout most of the country, benefitting overall yields. However, below‑average rains between January and April 2018 over West and North Sumatra provinces negatively affected rainfed paddy crops at the reproductive and ripening stages, reducing yields. Regarding the 2018 secondary paddy crop, the bulk was planted between May and June, under near normal rainfall and adequate supplies of water for irrigation, which had a positive impact on crop establishment and development. Currently, remote sensing data indicates good vegetation conditions across all cropping areas (see ASI map). Some concerns, however, remain for the provinces of Central and East Java as well as North and West Sumatra due to persistent below‑average rains since early March. Based on the estimates of the already harvested main crops and the early outlook for the ongoing secondary crop, the aggregate paddy production in 2018 is forecast at 74.5 million tonnes, similar to the 2017 bumper level and about 7 percent above the five‑year average.

Harvesting of the 2018 main maize crop was completed in March, while the secondary crop, which benefitted from generally favourable weather conditions, will be harvested from the end of July. The 2018 aggregate maize output is forecast at about 24.5 million tonnes, close to the previous year’s record level and well above the five‑year average as area planted increased year‑on‑year, supported by a strong demand from the feed industry.

Total cereal imports in 2018/19 forecast to surpass previous year’s high level

The country is one of the biggest importers of cereals in Southeast Asia. Total cereal imports in the 2018/19 marketing year are forecast at 14.3 million tonnes, 8 percent above the previous year’s high level and 15 percent above the average. Rice imports in 2018 are anticipated to reach 1.5 million tonnes, up from the eight‑year low levels of 320 000 tonnes in 2017, supported by Governmental purchases in response to increasing domestic prices between October 2017 and February 2018, and the reduction in State rice inventories. Wheat imports are projected at 11.5 million tonnes, close to last year’s record level due to continued strong domestic demand for human consumption and for poultry and livestock feed. Maize imports in the 2018/19 marketing year are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, close to the level of the previous year.

Prices of rice declined for second consecutive month in April

The average price of medium quality rice, following slight increases earlier in the year, declined for the second consecutive month in April, reflecting improved market availabilities from the 2018 main harvest and imports. Overall, prices of rice in April 2018 were close to their year-earlier levels. Prices of wheat flour were generally stable owing to adequate imports in recent months.

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