Reference Date: 19-October-2023

Production of 2023 main “Kharif” paddy and maize forecast at above‑average levels

Harvesting of the 2023, mostly rainfed, main “Kharif” paddy and maize crops, accounting for 85 percent of the total production, just began and is expected to finalize in January next year. The area planted with paddy and maize crops is officially estimated at an above‑average level. Precipitation amounts during the 2023 June to September monsoon season were generally adequate in most parts of the country, but at below‑average level in parts of key cereal producing states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal in the north, Karnataka in the south and Odisha in the east. Heavy rainfall in July triggered floods and landslides in the northwestern parts of the country, resulting in localized crop losses and disruption of agricultural livelihoods. Overall, the 2023 “Kharif” paddy and maize production is forecast above the five‑year average, as area increases are forecast to mostly compensate for yield declines stemming from unconducive weather in some states.

Wheat crop production, harvested last June, is officially estimated at a record of 112.7 million tonnes, due to both high levels of sowings and yields.

Total cereal exports forecast below average in 2023/24

On 20 July 2023, the government banned export of non‑basmati white rice with immediate effect, following earlier bans on exports of broken rice (from 8 September 2022) and wheat (from 13 May 2022). Since then, additional rice export restrictions have been announced, including the 20 percent export duty on parboiled rice variety effective from 25 August 2023. However, the government announced that exceptions to the export restrictions may be approved under a special permission on food security grounds.

Rice exports in calendar 2023 are forecast at 19.3 million tonnes, down 13 percent from the 2022 level. Wheat exports in the 2023/24 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, almost half the five‑year average level. Maize exports in the 2023/24 marketing year (April/March) are estimated at a well above average level of 3.7 million tonnes, due to strong international demand and adequate availability.

Prices of rice and wheat grain higher year‑on‑year in September

In the New Delhi market, domestic prices of rice have generally increased between September 2022 and March 2023. After some seasonal declines in April and May 2023, prices remained generally stable. As of September 2023, domestic rice prices were 22 percent higher on a yearly basis. Prices of wheat grain softened since February 2023 due to improved market availability from the 2023 harvest. However, in September 2023, prices were 12 percent above their year‑earlier levels, after strong increases in 2022, driven by robust international demand and reduced domestic stocks. Prices of various vegetables, including tomatoes and onions, were at higher year‑on‑year in September 2023 due to tight market availability as crops grown in the main producing northwestern areas were severely affected by heavy rains in July.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .