Reference Date: 12-December-2016
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Cereal production declined in 2016
Cereal imports in 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) forecast to increase
Wheat flour prices eased in period September‑November 2016
Cereal production to decline in 2016 following reduced plantings and yields
FAO’s latest estimate for total cereal production in 2016 is set at 1.66 million tonnes, a decline of 5.5 percent from the previous year on account of smaller wheat and maize crops. Wheat output is estimated at 654 million tonnes, down 7 percent from the 2015 level following a sharp reduction in plantings in response to abundant supplies of good quality wheat from Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation and since Kyrgyzstan joined the Eurasian Customs Union. Maize production is estimated down by 14 percent, following lower yields this year. By contrast, output of the barley crop rose by 14 percent following a 9 percent increase in plantings.
Cereal imports in 2016/17 marketing year forecast to increase
Kyrgyzstan depends heavily on cereal imports to meet its consumption needs, with wheat accounting for about 98 percent of the total cereal imports. Wheat imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 550 000 tonnes, up 10 percent from the previous year’s level.
The bulk of the wheat and wheat flour comes from Kazakhstan, although the share of imports from the Russian Federation has increased from 6 percent in 2010/11 to 20 percent in 2015/16.
Wheat flour prices eased in September‑November 2016
Prices of wheat flour declined in the period September‑ November 2016 and in November were below their year‑earlier levels by more than 10 percent, reflecting abundant supplies in the subregion from the new harvest and, since January 2016, the exemption of import taxes on wheat flour. However, the Government has proposed to reintroduce the VAT on wheat from January 2017. This measure may support wheat flour prices in the future.