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Country Briefs


Reference Date: 31-March-2016


  1. Early forecasts point to lower cereal production in 2016 after 2015’s good crop

  2. Cereal imports in 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) forecast to remain stable

  3. Wheat flour prices eased in early 2016

Decline in cereal production forecast in 2016 following reduced plantings

The area planted to winter wheat for harvest in 2016 is reported to be down by about 8 percent in response to abundant supplies of good quality wheat from Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, since Kyrgyzstan joined the Eurasian Customs Union. Recent remote sensing data indicates that the vegetative growth of winter wheat after the winter dormancy has started sooner this year as a result of the unusually warm temperatures and development is good despite lower‑than‑average precipitation. Planting of the 2016 spring cereal crops will start in April. At this early stage, assuming normal weather for the remainder of the season, FAO forecasts the country’s total cereal production in 2016 at about 1.4 million tonnes, 20 percent down from the 2015 good crop, mostly on account of the reduced wheat crop expected.

Cereal production in 2015 recovered from previous year’s low level

FAO’s latest estimate for the 2015 cereal production stands at 1.7 million tonnes, almost one‑third up from the 2014 reduced level, mostly reflecting particularly favourable weather conditions in the main growing provinces. Wheat and maize outputs increased by almost 15 percent from the previous year’s levels, while barley production almost doubled.

Cereal imports in 2015/16 marketing forecast close to previous season’s level

Kyrgyzstan depends heavily on cereal imports to meet its consumption needs, with wheat accounting for about 98 percent of the total cereal imports. Wheat imports in the 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 550 000 tonnes, around the previous year’s above‑average level.

The bulk of imports in 2015/16 are expected to come from the Russian Federation. Prior to 2015/16, Kazakhstan was the main supplier of wheat and wheat flour to the country but the lower quality of Kazakhstan wheat from the past two harvests, together with higher prices, have led Kyrgyzstan, with other importing countries of the region, to favour the Russian Federation as a source.

Wheat flour prices eased in early 2016

Prices of wheat flour remained under downward pressure in the first quarter of 2016 and were generally below their year‑earlier levels, reflecting low prices in the regional export market and adequate supplies from the 2015 good wheat output. As of 15 January, the Government exempted imported wheat for milling from the value added tax to support local flour producers. This measure underpinned the decline in flour prices.