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Reference Date: 16-October-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. 2014 main season rice production forecast to decrease slightly

  2. Rice exports forecast to decline in 2014

  3. Rice prices stable in recent months

  4. Overall food security situation satisfactory

2014 main season rice production forecast to decrease slightly

Planting of the 2014 main (wet) season paddy crop, which normally accounts for about 80 percent of annual production, is almost complete. Overall, rainfall between June and mid-October has been near-average over much of the country benefiting sowing activities and crop development. However, a dry spell over northwestern parts of the country between June and August, coupled with localized floods in August in the Mekong River Basin, affected close to 166 000 hectares of agricultural crops, of which some 36 000 hectares were damaged. As a result, FAO’s latest forecast puts the 2014 main season rice output at 7.2 million tonnes, 2 percent below last year’s record level of the same season. Assuming an average 2014/15 secondary (dry) season harvest, FAO’s preliminary forecast for the aggregate 2014 rice production stands at 9.3 million tonnes, marginally below last year’s record level.

Harvesting of the 2014 maize crop began in September and will continue until the end of October. FAO’s latest forecast points to a 3 percent decrease to 900 000 tonnes, reflecting a contraction in planted area, after the record level in 2013.

Rice exports forecast to decline in 2014

Cereal exports in the 2013/14 marketing year (January/December) are forecast at 1.4 million tonnes, 6 percent below last year’s record level. Most of this volume is rice, which is anticipated to decline by 9 percent compared to last year’s high level to 1 million tonnes, on expectations of reduced trade with Thailand and Viet Nam.

Rice prices stable in past months

Wholesale prices of rice remained stable in most markets in September and were generally below their year-earlier levels reflecting weaker export demand and lower subregional export prices.

Overall food security situation is satisfactory

Following good supplies from the 2013 bumper cereal harvests, overall food availability is satisfactory. Access to food has also increased due to lower rice prices and the increase in daily wage rates for unskilled workers engaged mainly in farming and construction. However, recent floods affected at least 100 000 families, damaged houses and agricultural infrastructure.











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 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2012, 2000, 1999, 1997, 1996
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