Reference Date: 19-November-2014
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
2014 rice output is forecast to decrease slightly, but remains just above average
Cereal exports in 2014 forecast to increase from last year’s high level
Food insecurity is of concern in parts of the country
2014 rice production is forecast to decrease slightly
Harvesting of the 2014 main (wet) season paddy crop is currently underway and will continue until the end of December. FAO’s current forecast for the aggregate 2014 rice output (including the ongoing main season and the forthcoming 2014/15 secondary seasons), stands at 3.3 million tonnes, about 3 percent below last year’s production. The slight decline is on account of heavy rains in early August that caused localized flooding across northern and central parts of the country, resulting in some crop losses. In addition, relatively low rice prices at sowing time resulted in a slight contraction in the area planted for the main season rice crop, further contributing to the expected production decrease.
The 2014 maize output is estimated by FAO at 1.13 million tonnes, marginally below last year’s high level.
Cereal exports in 2014 are forecast to increase from last year’s high level
Cereal exports for the 2013/14 marketing year (January/December) are forecast at 340 000 tonnes, some 6 percent above last year’s high level, mainly reflecting bumper cereal harvests in 2013. Most of this volume is maize, exports of which are forecast slightly higher than last year’s above-average level of 280 000 tonnes. Much of the trade takes place with Thailand, Viet Nam, Cambodia and China. The country is expected to remain more-or-less self-sufficient in rice.
Food insecurity remains a concern in some parts of the country
Despite steady economic growth, food insecure areas exist at the sub-national level. Ethnic groups and children living in remote and rural areas are particularly vulnerable. Approximately 90 percent of the rural population derive their income from the agricultural sector. The floods in August 2014 affected at least 120 000 people, damaging houses and infrastructure.
The latest available official data indicated that the national year-on-year inflation rate in September 2014 was 3 percent.