Reference Date: 26-September-2023

Dry weather conditions contributed to below‑average plantings of 2023 main maize crop

The 2023 main season maize crop, to be harvested from mid‑October, is currently at flowering and grain filling stages. According to official estimates, the area sown up to end‑August was 5 percent below the average, as a result of low precipitation amounts between May and mid‑July. According to satellite imagery, below‑average crop conditions were observed in key producing central areas (NDVI map). Yield prospects remain uncertain on account of mixed weather forecasts. Above‑average rainfall amounts are forecast in the centralwestern region in the October to December period, while average to below‑average precipitation is expected in the centralsouthern region.

Production of the 2023 minor season maize crop, harvested in the May to July period, is officially estimated at 8.9 million tonnes, 10 percent above the average, due to excellent yields.

The planting of the 2023 minor season sorghum crop was completed in mid‑September. Planted area as of end‑August is officially estimated to be more than 15 percent below average, owing to dry weather conditions. However, the 2023 aggregate sorghum production is preliminarily forecast to be near average, mostly due to the above‑average main season output attained during the second quarter of 2023, on account of large sowings and above‑average yields.

Planting of the minor season wheat crop, which accounts only for about 5 percent of the annual production, is ongoing. The 2023 aggregate wheat production is anticipated at an above‑average level of 3.46 million tonnes, reflecting the bumper main season harvest gathered in the April to June period.

Cereal import requirements in 2023/24 marketing year forecast slightly above average

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at 24.4 million tonnes, slightly above the five‑year average. This is supported by increasing demand for yellow maize by the domestic feed industry.

Prices of white maize sharply decreased in July

Prices of white maize declined sharply in July 2023, as the above‑average minor season harvest improved market supplies. Then, prices stabilized in August and they were more than 10 percent below their year‑earlier levels. Prices of black beans were mostly stable during the first eight months of 2023, but at higher year‑on‑year levels, reflecting reduced domestic outputs during the previous two seasons. Prices of rice have been declining since late 2022 due to larger year‑on‑year imports between September 2022 and May 2023. Additional downward pressure on rice prices was provided by the recent weakening of export prices of the United States of America, the major rice supplier to the country.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .