Reference Date: 14-November-2013
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
The 2013 maize and wheat production expected at good levels
Cereal imports forecast to decline in 2012/13 marketing year
Maize and bean prices at low levels
The 2013 maize and wheat production forecast at high levels
Harvesting of the 2013 spring-summer main season maize crop, which represents 70 percent of annual production, is underway and preliminary estimates point to an output of 17.6 million tonnes, 6 percent above the good crop of the same season in 2012, reflecting both higher plantings and yields , especially in the main producing states of Jalisco, Mexico and Guanajuato. The 2013 autumn-winter maize crop, which was harvested earlier in the year, has been revised upwards to 5.2 million tonnes, which is still 5 percent below last year’s good crop. The reduction in output for the 2013 secondary season maize was due to reduced levels of water reservoirs, especially in the Sinaloa region. Official forecasts point to an aggregate 2013 maize production (autumn-winter and spring-summer seasons) of 22.8 million tonnes, about 3 percent above the 2012 crop and slightly up from the five-year average.
Harvesting of the 2013 spring-summer secondary wheat crop is well underway and the output is anticipated almost 19 percent higher than in 2012. The increase reflects optimal weather conditions which resulted in higher yields. The 2013 irrigated autumn-winter wheat crop, which accounts for more than 90 percent of annual production, was harvested in July and was 4 percent up from last year’s reduced level. Early estimates for 2013 point to a total wheat production of 3.4 million tonnes or 5 percent up from 2012.
Cereal imports to increase in 2013/14 marketing year
Early forecasts for cereal imports in the 2013/14 marketing year (October/September) point to an increase of 11 percent from the previous year. This mainly reflects an increase of 14 percent in maize imports to 8 million tonnes in order to satisfy the strong demand from the feed industry. By contrast, wheat imports are forecast to decline by 10 percent from the previous year, following the higher production levels expected for 2013.
Maize and bean prices remain at low levels
Prices of white maize remained fairly stable in October at MXN 5.20 (USD 0.40), and were some 14 percent below their levels of a year earlier. Prices of tortilla, a traditional component of the local diet made out of white maize flour, stayed virtually unchanged at of MXN 11.18 (USD 0.84). Favourable prospects for the 2013 maize crop and a good secondary maize harvest contributed to keep prices stable.
Prices of staple beans remained also unchanged in October and were almost 12 percent lower than their levels a year earlier, reflecting ample supplies from last year’s good production.