Reference Date: 13-March-2019
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Above-average cereal production estimated in 2018
Prices of coarse grains generally decline as a result of good availabilities
Strong economic growth and declining food price inflation
Continued assistance needed for vulnerable people
Above-average cereal harvest gathered in 2018
The continuing support by the Government and partners in terms of agricultural inputs and generally adequate rainfall in 2018 benefitted crop development in most parts of the country. Harvesting of maize, millet, sorghum and rainfed rice crops was completed in November 2018, while harvesting of irrigated rice is ongoing and will be completed by end-April. The country’s aggregate cereal output in 2018 is estimated at 10 452 980 tonnes, about 12 percent higher than 2017’s output and 30 percent above the five-year average.
Early and extended rainfall improved the availability and quality of pastures in the main grazing areas of the country. Favourable rains have also contributed to replenish main water points, including dams, ponds, streams, rivers and lakes. The animal health situation is generally stable, with no major seasonal disease outbreaks. However, the persistence of insecurity in the centre and north of the country, affecting livelihoods and causing disruptions in herd movements, continues to limit access to grazing land.
Despite the above-average 2018 production, import requirements for the 2018/19 (November/October) marketing year are set at 500 000 tonnes, slightly above average due to higher demand from traders to replenish their stocks.
Declining prices of coarse grains as a result of good availabilities
Market supplies have increased since October 2018 due to the new harvest of staples, including millet, rice and sorghum. Market demand for staple food is seasonally stable as most households are still relying on the consumption of their own production. In general, prices of millet were generally stable or declining, while prices of sorghum slightly increased in February due to the high demand from institutional purchases and the rebuilding of stocks by storage agencies. However, prices remained generally below their year-earlier levels.
Moderate economic growth projected, food price inflation decreasing
According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), the economic growth is forecast to remain strong at about 4.8 percent in 2019, down from the 5 percent recorded in 2018 due to high public expenditures and growth of production in the mining and agricultural sectors. The year-on-year inflation rate in 2019 is forecast at about 1.7 percent, down from 2.2 percent in 2018 as a result of declining domestic non-oil commodity prices.
Continued assistance still needed for vulnerable people
Persistent insecurity undermines the food security and stability in the central and northern parts of the country. According to the November 2018 “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis, about 185 000 people were estimated to be in need of food assistance from October to December 2018, with a significant decrease from the 387 000 food insecure people from March to May 2018. However, the caseload is expected to increase to 416 000 during the June to August 2019 period if no mitigation actions are taken.
As of January 2019, the country was hosting approximately 26 000 refugees. In addition, there were 124 000 Internal Displaced People (IDP) and 71 000 returnees that depend mainly on humanitarian assistance. The number of IDPs has doubled since March 2018 due to insecurity.
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