GIEWS > Data & Tools > Earth Observation
GIEWS - Global Information and Early Warning System

Country Briefs

  Myanmar

Reference Date: 25-July-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Early outlook favourable for 2016 main paddy crop

  2. Rice exports in 2016 expected close to last year’s level

  3. Prices of rice decreased in early July, but remain high

  4. Floods for second consecutive year severely affected large number of people, especially in Chin and Rakhine states

Early outlook favourable for 2016 main paddy crop

Planting of the 2016 main (monsoon) paddy crop, which accounts for 85 percent of the annual production, is ongoing. The monsoon rains started on time in late May and progressed generally well over most of the country, benefiting planting activities and early crop development. Excessive precipitation in parts of Ayeyarwady, Bago, Sagaing regions and in Chin and Rakhine states triggered localized flooding in early June, but the impact on early‑planted crops is expected to be minimal overall. Assuming normal growing conditions prevail, FAO forecasts 2016 aggregate paddy production to recover from last year’s flood‑reduced level by 2 percent to 28 million tonnes.

Paddy production declined in 2015

FAO estimates the 2015 aggregate paddy output at 27.5 million tonnes, 3 percent below the 2014 already reduced level. The decrease mainly results from a smaller main season harvest, negatively affected by floods in July and August 2015.

Rice exports in 2016 expected close to last year’s level

Amid prospects of reduced demand from key buyers, namely China, FAO forecasts rice exports in calendar year 2016 at 1.6 million tonnes, close to last year’s reduced level and below the 2014 record.

Prices of rice decreased in early July, but remain high

Wholesale prices of Emata rice, the most consumed variety, decreased in early July, with supplies from the 2015/16 secondary season crop entering the markets. Lower demand from China, the country’s main importer in recent years, also weighed on prices. Overall, however, prices remained well above their year‑earlier levels after sustained increases since the beginning of the year, mainly because of tighter domestic supplies.

Floods for second consecutive year severely affected large number of people, especially in Chin and Rakhine states

According to official estimates, floods in June 2016 adversely affected at least 26 000 people, mainly in Ayeyarwady, Bago, Sagaing regions and Chin and Rakhine states. The same areas were also impacted by the severe floods and landslides in July and August last year. Particularly affected are Chin and Rakhine states, where highly vulnerable populations have not yet recovered from the 2015 floods.