Reference Date: 22-January-2013
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Favourable weather at the start of the 2012/13 early cropping season
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Below average rice crop estimated in 2012
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Slightly higher cereal imports in current marketing year
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Price of rice decreased sharply in recent months
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Food insecurity concerns due to adverse impact of floods and conflict in Rakhine, Kachin and Northen Shan states
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Favourable weather at the start of the 2012/13 early cropping season
Planting of the 2012 early (secondary) season crops, mainly maize and paddy and the main season wheat was completed in December. Generally above-normal rainfall since the start of the season over large parts of the country improved soil moisture conditions for planting and supported development of earlier planted crops. The remotely sensed data from satellite images, as of the first dekad of January 2013, confirms favourable situation for the 2012/13 cereal crop.
Below average rice crop estimated in 2012
Harvesting of the 2012 main season paddy crop, was completed in December. Following generally favourable weather at the start of the main season (May-June), torrential monsoon rains from late July to early August, resulted in localised flooding across vast parts in the southwest. Reportedly, the consequent inundations caused considerable damage to paddy crop in the large producing areas of Ayeyarwady and Bago. By contrast, northern and central areas, which also represent an important cereal growing region, experienced below average rains between May and October. Additionally, pest infestation led to some localized rice crop losses, particularly impacting Kachin in the northeast. The main season paddy generally accounts for approximately 80 percent of the national annual outputs a result of the developments during the season, FAO has now revised downwards the 2012 total rice production (main and the ongoing secondary season) to 30 million tonnes, almost unchanged from the flood affected harvest of 2011. The 2012 maize crop, harvested by mid-April, is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, some 15 percent higher than in 2011, reflecting mainly a slight expansion of almost 2 percent in the planted area, adequate input supply during the growing season, as well as high demand for the crop from the feed industry and from neighbouring China. Overall, the annual total cereal harvest for 2012 is forecast at 31.9 million tonnes (including paddy) showing a slight increase over the previous year’s below-average output.
Slightly higher cereal imports in current marketing year
Myanmar imports mainly wheat which is not produced locally. In 2012/13 (July/June) marketing year, the imports are forecast slightly above last year’s level at around 160 000 tonnes, in response to increasing demand. Overall, the total cereal import requirement for 2012/13 is forecast at 205 000 tonnes, up by some 5.1 percent on the 2011/12 level.
Price of rice decreased sharply in recent months
The wholesale price for Emata 25% rice, the main staple food in the country, has been decreasing for the third consecutive month from its peak in September. Prices in August and September had shot up following transport difficulties during and after the heavy rains and floods. The subsequent decrease is mainly attributed to the arrival of the 2012 new wet season crop into markets and the Government release of the supplies from its emergency reserves. The wholesale price of rice in Yangon in December 2012 was about 11 percent above the level of the same month a year ago, but returned to a stable level of around Kyat (MMK) 260 000 (about USD 303) per tonne.
Food insecurity concerns due to adverse impact of floods and conflict in Rakhine, Kachin and Northern Shan states
Overall, food security situation has improved except in areas affected by the floods in July and August 2012, which affected over 200 000 people nationwide. Furthermore, in Myanmar’s Rakhine (southwest), Kachin and Northern Shan (northeast) states, thousands of people were displaced, after continuous communal violence since June 2012.