Reference Date: 25-January-2024

Near‑average cereal production in 2023

Harvesting operations of the 2023 cereal crops concluded last November. The 2023 aggregate cereal production is officially estimated at about 5.2 million tonnes, 13 percent lower on a yearly basis, but about 2 percent lower than the average of the previous five years. Yields were affected by localized rainfall deficits and pest outbreaks. Furthermore, poor security conditions negatively affected farmers’ access to fields in the regions of Tillaberi and Diffa, as well as in northern areas of Tahoua and southern areas of Maradi regions.

Prices of cereals above their year‑earlier levels

Wholesale prices of locally produced millet and sorghum rose between 10 and 45 percent from June to September 2023. While prices registered seasonal declines in many markets between October and December 2023, wholesale prices of millet and sorghum remained up to 15 and 35 percent, respectively, above their year‑earlier levels.

Wholesale prices of imported rice increased by 30 to 50 percent from June to October 2023, and followed mixed trends in November and December 2023, when they were between 25 and 50 percent higher on a yearly basis. The high prices were partially due to the elevated international prices of rice following the adoption of an export ban of non‑basmati white rice in India since July 2023.

The elevated domestic prices of cereals are mainly underpinned by the sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) following the military takeover of 26 July 2023, including the suspension of economic and commercial transactions and the closure of borders with Benin and Nigeria, key sources and transit areas for imported food. In addition, high cereal prices were supported by disrupted internal trade flows due to poor security conditions.

Acute food insecurity currently at high levels and projected to increase in 2024

According to the November 2023 “Cadre Harmonisé” (CH) analysis, about 2.32 million people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between October and December 2023, including nearly 43 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This is above the 2.04 million people estimated to be acutely food insecure during the same period in 2022.

The high levels of acute food insecurity are underpinned by deteriorating security conditions, high food prices and localized crop production shortfalls. The frequency of violent incidents by non‑state armed groups, particularly in Diffa, Maradi, Tahoua and Tillaberi regions, remained high in 2023. Humanitarian access remains severely constrained due to military operations against non state armed groups in some areas, with negative short‑term consequences for local food security conditions. Humanitarian needs are particularly high for the 335 000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country, mostly located in Diffa and Tillaberi regions, and for 326 000 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from Nigeria and Mali. In addition, concerns exist for the food security situation of the 170 000 people that were affected by floods during the 2023 rainy season.

In the 2024 lean season period, between June and August, 3.23 million people are projected to face acute food insecurity, including nearly 95 500 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency).

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .