Reference Date: 03-August-2012
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Production prospects for the 2012 main season cereal crops are favourable
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Maize prices stable and well below their levels of a year ago
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Production prospects for the 2012 main season cereal crops are favourable
Harvesting of the 2012 main season cereal crops (maize, rice and sorghum) is about to start. The area sown is estimated to be 5 percent above the good level of the same season last year. According to recent reports, vegetation conditions for crops in July were generally satisfactory, despite of below average rains in the second decade of the month. Weather forecasts for the coming weeks are mixed; however if below average precipitation persists, this could negatively impact yields of late planted crops and planting activities of the second “de postrera” season (August-September). In general, production this year is supported by several measures adopted by the Government including the distribution of improved seeds and credit facilities. Early official forecast point to a 2012 maize aggregate production (“de primera”, “de postrera” and “de apante” crops) of 575 000 tonnes, 8 percent above the average of the last five years and record. Rice production is forecast at 440 000 tonnes, 4 percent above the good level of 2011.
The 2012 red bean production is projected at some 210 000 tonnes, below the bumper harvest of 2011 but close to average. However, at the projected level, production in 2012 is expected to cover national consumption requirements, as well as to provide a surplus for export to neighbouring countries.
Cereal imports expected to decline in 2012/13 (July/June)
Cereal imports for the 2012/13 marketing year (July/June), mainly maize and wheat are forecast at about 320 000 tonnes, slightly below last year’s level and 9 percent down from the average of the past five years as a result of the high output expected in 2012.
Maize prices stable and at low levels
Retail prices of main staple maize have remained relatively unchanged in the past four months and in July were 42 percent below their levels of a year earlier, mainly reflecting good availabilities from the 2011 harvests. Prices of red beans, another basic ingredient in the national diet, have decreased since May following the good harvest of the 2011/12 third season (“de apante”) crops and favourable prospects for the coming harvest. Prices had increased in April as a result of the high demand from neighbouring countries; however, in July they were 27 percent below their levels at the same time a year ago. By contrast, rice prices have risen moderately over the past few months, and in June were 13 percent higher than twelve months earlier.