Reference Date: 26-April-2013
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Favourable production prospects for the 2013 winter wheat crop
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Prices of wheat and rice remain stable at high levels
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Food security remains a major challenge for the flood-affected population
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Favourable production prospects for the 2013 winter wheat crop
Harvesting of the 2013 winter wheat crop began in March in Sindh province in the south and is expected to continue until mid-June in Punjab in the north. Generally favourable weather conditions, with above-average rains between December and March 2013 in the main wheat growing province of Punjab, coupled with good supplies of fertilizers and irrigation water, led to an upward revision from the first forecast, to record levels. Latest official projections point to a crop of about 26.3 million tonnes, some 10 percent above last year’s above-average output.
Harvesting of the 2012 summer season Kharif crops, mostly paddy, maize and sorghum was completed last December. Following below normal rains at the start of the 2012 Kharif season (May-July), a period of heavy rains ensued in late August and September, causing localised flooding across southern Punjab, northern Sindh and north-eastern Balochistan. Although, the rains provided much relief in some parts, they also reportedly damaged some 474 310 hectares of standing crops, mostly in Sindh and Balochistan. As a result of the localised floods the final estimate for the 2012 paddy output was reduced to 8 million tonnes (5.4 million tonnes in milled terms), some 13 percent below previous year’s above-average harvest. The 2012 total production estimate for maize, sorghum and millet is put at 4.1 million tonnes.
With the good production in 2012, cereal exports for the almost ended 2012/13 marketing year (May/April) have been estimated at about 2.9 million tonnes of rice and 300 000 tonnes of wheat.
Prices of wheat and rice remain stable at high levels
Prices of wheat and wheat flour, which increased steadily from late 2011, have stabilized in recent months but remained at record or near record levels in March in most markets of the country. The high level of prices reflects high producer prices and strong export demand. At the same time, the announcement of higher producer support price for wheat, from PKR 1 050 per 40 kg bag to PKR 1 200 per 40 kg, further underpinned prices in the past months.
In March, retail prices of wheat and wheat flour in Lahore market, were 13.4 percent and 15 percent above their levels a year earlier.
Prices of rice (Irri varieties) have remained relatively stable in recent months at high levels and in March 2013 they were some 6 percent higher than in March 2012. Similarly, the price of basmati rice, intended mainly for export, has been stable at a record level since June 2012 and in March 2013 prices increased by 15 percent over the corresponding month last year
In March 2013 the national CPI was up 6.6 percent relative to the same period last year. Compared to last year, the food component of the CPI increased by 6.3 percent while the non-food component rose by 6.7 percent.
Food security remains a major challenge for the flood-affected population
The overall food supply situation in Pakistan has been satisfactory following consecutive years of relatively good harvests. However, the country was hit by severe floods for the second year in row. The floods affected over 9 million people. The number of houses damaged or destroyed has reached nearly 1.5 million. Furthermore, the affected population suffered significant crop, livestock and grain stock losses. The FAO initiative Pakistan Floods Rapid Response Plan 2011 is funded by donor contributions with nearly USD 10.6 million to provide approximately 91 000 flood-affected families with vital crop and livestock assistance.