GIEWS Country Briefs

Philippines PDF version Archives    Email this article Print this article Subscribe FAO GIEWS RSS  Share this article  

Reference Date: 07-October-2015

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Main season rice output in 2015 to decrease from last year’s record due to dry conditions

  2. Cereal imports in 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) forecast to increase from last year’s high level

  3. Prices of rice stable over past few months

Main season rice output in 2015 to decrease from last year’s record due to dry conditions

Harvesting of the 2015 main season rice crop, which accounts for about 55 percent of the annual production, has just started and will continue until mid-December. Planting of the 2015 secondary season rice crop is expected to start in mid-October. Production of the 2015 main season rice crop is forecast to decrease as a result of a contraction in plantings, following below-average rains throughout most of the planting period, coupled with insufficient water supplies for irrigation, which could negatively impact yields. As of July, official reports indicated a large reduction in area planted throughout most of the country, particularly in Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Western Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and SOCCSKSARGEN. Some additional damage to crops has been caused by the passage of Typhoon ‘’Egay’’ in July. Based on the unfavourable progress of the ongoing main season crop and considering the uncertainties surrounding the forthcoming 2015/16 secondary season, FAO currently forecasts the 2015 aggregate rice production at 18.3 million tonnes, 3 percent down from the previous year’s level. Rainfall performance in the coming weeks will prove crucial in avoiding further yield reductions and determining the availability of irrigation supplies for the secondary season crop.

Harvesting of the 2015 main season maize crop was completed in mid-September. Output decreased slightly as a result of marginally lower plantings and yields following below-average rainfall during the cropping season. As a result, FAO estimates the 2015 aggregate maize production, including 2015 secondary and main season crops, at 7.6 million tonnes, 2 percent below last year’s high level.

The current dry weather may be attributed to the prevailing global El Niño event, which is often associated with dry weather in the country. Currently, reports from the main meteorological and oceanic institutions forecast that strong El Niño conditions will continue in the coming months and persist into spring 2016.

The FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System will continue to closely monitor the weather situation and assess possible effects on rice production.

Cereal imports in 2015/16 marketing year forecast to increase from last year’s high level

Cereal imports in the 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 6.9 million tonnes, 9 percent up from the 2014/15 high level and 51 percent above the average of the past five years. The increase is mainly attributed to higher wheat imports, which are projected to increase by 8 percent from last year’s near-record level and reach 4.3 million tonnes, as a result of increased demand from the food and feed industry. Similarly, rice imports in the 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) are forecast to increase to 2.1 million tonnes from the 1.8 million tonnes of last year. By contrast, maize imports are expected to decrease by 4 percent to 500 000 tonnes, due to larger domestic availabilities.

Prices of rice stable over past few months

The national average prices of regular and well-milled rice varieties remained stable in September, with the downward pressure from the beginning of the 2015 main season harvest offset by the expected decline in output, tied to the dry weather. Overall, rice prices were below their high levels of a year earlier.











Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

Email this article Print     Subscribe FAO GIEWS RSS Subscribe GIEWS RSS Share this article  Share it

GIEWS   global information and early warning system on food and agriculture