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Reference Date: 25-July-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production in 2016 forecast to recover from last year’s reduced level

  2. Wheat imports in 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) to remain high

  3. Prices of rice stable in recent months

Cereal production in 2016 forecast to recover from last year’s reduced level

Planting of the 2016 main paddy crop, which accounts for about 55 percent of the annual production, is ongoing. Despite some delays, monsoon rains improved over most of the country from late May, benefiting planting activities and early crop development. Assuming normal growing conditions prevail, FAO forecasts the aggregate 2016 paddy production (including the ongoing main and the forthcoming secondary crops) at 18.7 million tonnes, implying a 7 percent recovery from the 2015 weather‑reduced level and close to the 2014 record. Similarly, assuming normal weather, FAO anticipates the 2016 maize output at 7.6 million tonnes, 9 percent above last year’s reduced output.

The 2015/16 El Niño anomaly has dissipated. Atmospheric conditions now point to a 55‑60 percent likelihood of a La Niña episode towards the end of 2016 (which would correspond with the planting period of the secondary paddy crop). The phenomenon is historically associated with heavier rainfall. Depending on its intensity, it could benefit 2016 main and secondary season crops, although excessive rains could also raise the potential for flooding.

Cereal production declined in 2015 mainly due to dry weather

Latest official estimates put the 2015 aggregate paddy output at 17.4 million tonnes, 8 percent below the 2014 record output. The decrease resulted from smaller main and secondary season harvests that were negatively affected by a combination of poor rains, insufficient water supplies for irrigation and the passage of typhoons. Similarly, the 2015 maize output is officially estimated to have dropped by 9 percent to 7 million tonnes, because of the prolonged dry weather during the cropping season.

Wheat imports in 2016/17 marketing year to remain high

Wheat imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 4.5 million tonnes, close to last year’s record level, reflecting high demand for both high‑quality wheat for milling and low‑quality wheat for animal feeding. FAO forecasts rice imports in calendar year 2016 to fall by almost 20 percent to 1.6 million tonnes. Maize imports, which are relatively small, are forecast to remain at last year’s level of 600 000 tonnes in 2016/17.

Prices of rice stable in recent months

The national average prices of regular and well‑milled rice varieties remained stable in recent months reflecting adequate availabilities. Overall, rice prices were close to their year earlier levels.







Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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