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Reference Date: 22-January-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Maize output in 2016 to decline from previous year’s high

  2. Record 2015 cereal production forecast

  3. Cereal exports forecast at record level for 2015/16

  4. Maize prices stable and below last year’s levels

Maize output in 2016 to decline from previous year’s high

Early forecasts for the 2016 maize crop, currently being harvested, point to an almost 36 percent decrease in production from last year’s record level. The decline mainly reflects a reduction of 22.5 percent in the area sown, in response to high availabilities and low market prices. However, at the forecasted level of almost 3.3 million tonnes, this year’s output would be close to the average of the past five years.

Record 2015 cereal production

Cereal production in 2015 is estimated at a record 7.1 million tonnes. The increase mainly reflects considerably higher maize output estimated at a record level of 5 million tonnes, as a result of a 30 percent expansion in the area harvested, as well as bumper yields due to above-average rainfall. By contrast, wheat production decreased by 19 percent to 1.1 million tonnes, due to a 16 percent contraction in plantings and lower yields, and unfavourable weather conditions during the season.

Cereal exports forecast at record level for 2015/16

Cereal exports in the 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) are preliminarily forecast at a record 4.1 million tonnes, two-thirds of which are expected to be maize. Maize exports, which are primarily destined to China, are forecast to reach a record level at 3 million tonnes, up 20 percent compared to the previous year. Wheat exports are expected to increase by 250 000 tonnes or 50 percent from the 2014/15 level, reflecting a higher demand from Brazil.

Maize prices stable and below last year’s levels

Maize (white and yellow), as well as maize flour prices remained relatively unchanged in November and well below their year-earlier levels reflecting ample supplies in the market, particularly for yellow maize.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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