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Country Briefs

  Paraguay

Reference Date: 08-November-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal output in 2016 to decline sharply from last year’s record level

  2. Cereal exports to decline strongly in 2016/17 marketing year

  3. Yellow maize prices declined in September, but white maize and maize flour quotations above year-earlier levels

Cereal output in 2016 to decline sharply from last year’s record level

Cereal output in 2016 is forecast sharply down from last year’s record level at 5.3 million tonnes, its lowest level since 2012. The decline is a result of lower sowings for both maize and wheat, which together account for 85 percent of cereal output, as a result of low prices and large carryover stocks from the previous year. The 2016 maize crop, which was harvested last April, has been estimated at 3.75 million tonnes, below the five‑year average, as sowings were reduced by almost 12 percent and yields were impacted by below-normal precipitation at the beginning of the season. The harvest of the 2016 wheat crop is well advanced and early indications point to an output of 800 000 tonnes, 25 percent below last year’s level, as sowings were reduced in response to the low prices at the beginning of the season. Rice production also declined in 2016 as reduced margins discouraged producers who reduced plantings, while less than ideal weather negatively affected yields.

Planting of the 2017 maize crop concluded in September. Supported by low export prices, preliminary estimates point to a further reduction in the area sown of 3 percent from last year’s reduced level.

Cereal exports to decline strongly in 2016/17 marketing year

Cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at 3.7 million tonnes, below last year’s record level and the five‑year average. The decline mainly reflects lower maize exports which are expected to decline by almost 19 percent from last year’s high level.

Yellow maize prices declined in September, but white maize and maize flour quotations above year earlier levels

Yellow maize prices declined in September and were 8 percent below last year’s level reflecting ample availabilities in the market from the harvest earlier in the year and high stock levels. However, both white maize and maize flour prices increased in September from the previous month and from the same time a year earlier, reflecting this year’s reduced output.