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Reference Date: 03-February-2016

HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Dry weather adversely impacted winter cereal planting for 2016 harvest, but overall crop conditions are good

  2. Cereal production in 2015 estimated at good level

  3. Exports in 2015/16 marketing year forecast above last season’s record

  4. Export prices decreased further, while domestic prices rising following devaluation of the Roubles

Dry weather adversely impacted winter cereal planting for 2016 harvest, but overall crop conditions are good

Unfavourable dry weather conditions last autumn during planting of the winter cereal crops for harvest in July-August 2016, resulted in the irregular emergence of some crops However, precipitation in November somewhat improved moisture and crop conditions before dormancy and good snow in most regions reduced the risk of winterkill. As of the end of January, around 90 percent of the winter cereal area was officially reported in good or satisfactory condition. The total area planted to winter cereals is estimated at 16.3 million hectares, slightly below 16.8 million hectares of last year.

Cereal production in 2015 estimated at good level

The latest estimate of 2015 total cereal production stands at 104.3 million tonnes, which is just 1 percent less than in 2014. Wheat output is estimated at 61.8 million tonnes, up 3.5 percent from an already high level of 2014. Maize production is estimated at 12.7 million tonnes, 12 percent up from 2014, following increased planting area and better yields. By contrast, barley harvest decreased by 14 percent to 17.5 million tonnes, mainly due to weather-induced lower yields.

Exports in 2015/16 marketing year forecast above last season’s record

Cereal exports in 2015/16 marketing season are forecast at around 31 million tonnes, marginally higher than the previous season. Of the total, wheat is expected to account for 23.5 million tonnes, up 7 percent from the previous season. According to latest available data, from 1 July 2015 to 27 January 2016, cereal exports amounted to 21.9 million tonnes, 3.7 percent less than the corresponding period of the previous year. During the same period, shipments of wheat were 16.5 million tonnes. The introduction of a floating tax in July restrained the pace of wheat exports in the first months of the season. However, since 1 October 2015, the Government revised the formula of the customs duties allowing traders to increase wheat shipments on foreign markets.

Export prices decreased further, while domestic prices are rising following devaluation of the Roubles

Domestic prices of milling wheat increased slightly in January, reflecting the devaluation of the Roubles and increased trade activity. Prices of wheat and wheat flour, however, remained lower than in January last year, mainly pressured by the good 2015 output.

By contrast, export prices of milling wheat declined by 4 percent in January, as a result of ample supplies and strong export competition on global markets. At this level, prices are almost one-third below their year-earlier level.









Relevant links:
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 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
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 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
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