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Reference Date: 14-November-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. 2014 aggregate cereal harvest estimated at near-record level

  2. Exports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) forecast at record level

  3. Export wheat prices continue to decline

2014 aggregate cereal harvest estimated at near-record level

Harvesting of the 2014 cereal crops was completed in October and total production is put at 104 million tonnes, up 16 percent from last year’s good level. The bumper output reflects a strong increase in wheat and barley production estimated by FAO at 60.8 and 20.8 million tonnes, respectively. This is mainly attributed to high yields following favourable weather conditions throughout the cropping season and continued Government support to the sector.

Sowing of the 2015 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat and barley, was completed in October under generally favourable weather conditions although dry weather in the first half of October over the Volga Valley, an important producing area, hampered somewhat sowing activities. Early estimations point to an increase in the area planted to winter cereals to 16.5 million hectares, 2 million hectares up from last year’s level.

Exports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) forecast at record level

Cereal exports in the current 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a record level of 31.1 million tonnes, or 22 percent higher than last year’s high level. Wheat represents about 73 percent of exports and the remaining is barley, maize and rye. The largest part of exports is shipped to Egypt, Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Russian Government announced, on 6 August 2014, the ban for one year of most food imports from the United States of America, the European Union, Norway, Canada and Australia. The ban, which does not include U.S.A. rice and wild rice, was introduced on imports of meat, fish, nuts, fruits, vegetables and milk products from 13 August 2014.

Export wheat prices continue to decline

Wheat export quotations declined slightly in October, continuing the downward trend of the past months, as a result of the recently-completed 2014 bumper harvests coupled with a slowdown in export sales.

Domestic prices of staple potatoes decreased seasonally for the fourth consecutive month in October but remained slightly higher than their year-earlier levels. The strong devaluation of the national currency and high general inflation pushed up prices of meat, dairy and fish products.

The annual inflation rate increased for the third consecutive month to 8.3 percent in October, with the cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages increasing by 11.5 percent year-on-year.











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