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Reference Date: 06-June-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Latest forecast for 2016 points to highest cereal production since 2008

  2. Exports in 2016/17 marketing year forecast slightly below last season’s record

  3. Export and domestic prices for wheat increased in May

Latest forecast for 2016 points to highest cereal production since 2008

Dry weather and poor soil moisture last autumn during planting of the winter cereal crops raised concerns over winter crop conditions. However, winter and spring weather has been favourable for the development of winter crops and planting of spring cereals, leading to an improved outlook for this year’s cereal production and upward revision to the output forecast from earlier expectations. As of May, FAO’s forecast for the country’s cereal production in 2016 stands at 105.4 million tonnes, of which wheat would account for 62.5 million tonnes. Maize production is forecast at a record level of 13.8 million tonnes. Maize production has increased steadily over the past years due to increased plantings and use of hybrid seeds.

Exports in 2016/17 marketing season forecast slightly below 2015/16 level

Total cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year are forecast at around 30 million tonnes, marginally below the record of the previous season. Wheat exports are expected to account for 22.5 million tonnes, down just 1 million tonnes from the record of the previous season. Maize exports are seen at 4 million tonnes, unchanged from the high level of 2015/16 and just 1 percent below the record of 2013/14.

Regarding imports, high quality wheat and wheat flour imports are increasing on rising demand. Around 600 000 tonnes of wheat and wheat flour (in grain equivalent) are expected to be imported in 2016/17, that is triple of the 2014/15 level although half of the level in 2005/06. Kazakhstan remains the main supplier of high quality wheat and wheat flour to the country.

Export and domestic prices for wheat increased in May

Domestic prices of milling wheat increased slightly in May, reflecting the devaluation of the Rouble and limited grain supply. Prices of wheat were higher by almost 20 percent than in May last year, mainly due to the weakening of the national currency.

Export prices of milling wheat increased in May, as a result of increased demand. At this level, prices are just 4 percent below their year‑earlier level.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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