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Reference Date: 23-December-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. 2014 aggregate cereal harvest estimated at near-record level

  2. Exports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) forecast at record level

  3. Export prices of wheat increased in November

2014 aggregate cereal harvest estimated at near-record level

Harvesting of the 2014 cereal crops was completed in October and total production is put at 104 million tonnes, up 16 percent from last year’s good level. The bumper output reflects a strong increase in wheat and barley production estimated by FAO at 60.8 and 20.8 million tonnes, respectively. This is mainly attributed to high yields following favourable weather conditions throughout the cropping season and continued Government support to the sector.

Sowing of the 2015 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat and barley, was completed in October. Well below-average temperatures increased stress on winter wheat in the main producing northern growing areas, where dry weather in October and November resulted in poor establishment of the crop. By contrast, in the southern producing areas winter wheat is reported to be in generally good conditions, following favourable weather conditions since the start of the season. Early estimates point to an increase in the area planted to winter cereals to 16.5 million hectares, 2 million hectares up from last year’s level.

Exports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) forecast at record level

Cereal exports in the current 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a record level of 31.1 million tonnes, or 22 percent higher than last year’s high level. Wheat represents about 73 percent of exports and the remaining is barley, maize and rye. The largest part of exports is shipped to Egypt, Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Russian Government announced, on 6 August 2014, the ban for one year of most food imports from the United States of America, the European Union, Norway, Canada and Australia. The ban, which does not include U.S.A. rice and wild rice, was introduced on imports of meat, fish, nuts, fruits, vegetables and milk products from 13 August 2014.

Export prices of wheat increased in November

Export prices of wheat increased in November, mainly reflecting the recent sharp depreciation of the national currency, coupled with concerns about adverse weather affecting the newly-planted 2015 wheat crops in parts.

Domestic prices of staple potatoes increased in November, following seasonal decreases in previous months. The strong devaluation of the national currency and high general inflation pushed up prices of meat, dairy and fish products.

The annual inflation rate increased for the fourth consecutive month to 9.1 percent in November 2014.











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