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Reference Date: 14-May-2015

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Aggregate 2015 cereal harvest forecast to decline from last year’s bumper crop but still above-average level

  2. Exports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) anticipated at record level

  3. Export prices of wheat further decreased in April

Aggregate 2015 cereal harvest to decline from last year’s bumper crop but still forecast at an above-average level

The 2015 winter cereal crop, mainly wheat and barley, which is expected to be harvested from July, is currently growing under favourable weather conditions. Mild weather in March and above‑average rainfall in April, mainly in southern growing areas, improved soil moisture, partly compensating for a dry period during autumn and winter.

Heavy rains during April slowed sowing of the 2015 spring crops with the area planted until mid-May being below the level at the same time a year earlier. Higher input costs may also result in a reduction in plantings. Overall, however, the total area planted to cereals in 2015 is expected to remain unchanged compared to last year’s average level, with a strong expansion in winter plantings to offset the projected shortfall in spring sowings. FAO’s early forecast put the 2015 aggregate cereal production at 94.8 million tonnes, some 7 percent below last year’s bumper level but above the five-year average.

Exports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) forecast at record level

Cereal exports in the current 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at a record level of 27.3 million tonnes, or 7 percent above last year’s high level. Wheat represents about 73 percent of exports and the remaining is barley, maize and rye. The largest part of exports is shipped to Egypt, Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran. A draft decree on the abolition for existing export duties on wheat has been prepared by the Government and a new formula might come into effect at the beginning of the new agricultural year, on 1 July.

Export prices of wheat further decreased in April

Government restrictions, coupled with further strengthening of the national currency, led to a slowdown in export sales, which put downward pressure on export and domestic prices of wheat in April. Overall, favourable prospects for the 2015 wheat crops also contributed to the price decline. In April, export prices of milling wheat were almost one-third below their year-earlier levels.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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