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Country Briefs

  Russian Federation

Reference Date: 20-December-2016

HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Cereal production forecast at record level in 2016

  2. Cereal exports also set to reach new record in 2016/17 marketing year

  3. Export and domestic prices for wheat increased over last three months

Cereal production forecast at record level in 2016

Total cereal production in 2016 is forecast to reach 116 million tonnes, 13 percent up from the already bumper level of 2015, mainly on account of favourable weather during the winter and spring that boosted yields. Wheat production is now forecast at a record level of 72 million tonnes, up from earlier expectations and 16 percent up from last year following better than expected yields although the crop quality is reported to be poorer. A lesser increase is expected for the maize crop, which is forecast at around 15 million tonnes, 11 percent up from 2015, mostly as a result of increased plantings. Better yields contributed to an estimated 7 percent production increase of barley.

Planting of winter crops to be harvested in 2017 is virtually complete. Although heavy precipitation caused some delay in planting in the south of the country, as of 12 December, around 17.37 million hectares have been planted, 6 percent more than at the corresponding date in 2016.

Cereal exports in 2016/17 marketing season also set to reach record high

Despite record domestic production in 2016 and the removal of the wheat export tax, the pace of grain exports fell short of market expectations since the beginning of the marketing year, which led to a downgrade of the initial export forecast. Total cereal exports in the 2016/17 (July/June) marketing year are now set at around 37 million tonnes, still a record level and 6 percent above the previous high achieved in 2015/16. Most of the increase is expected to come from higher wheat exports, which are forecast at around 29 million tonnes, making the country the first wheat exporter in the world in 2016/17.

Maize exports are seen at 5 million tonnes, 3 percent above the high level of 2015/16.

Prices of wheat and wheat flour has increased over last three months

Export prices of milling wheat increased over the past three months supported by strong demand from key importers. Prices were also underpinned by concerns about growing conditions for the recently sown 2017 crops in certain areas of the Black Sea region. Moreover, unfavourable weather conditions in October November have caused logistic problems, especially regarding the delivery to the ports. However, at the second week of December, export prices of milling wheat decreased for the first time in the last three months. Prices are being pressured by expanding wheat supplies from Argentina and Australia.

Domestic prices of the country rose since August as a result of the shortage of high quality wheat. Intervention purchases also gave some support to prices in October.