Reference Date: 07-August-2023

Generally favourable start of 2023 rainy season

Seasonal rains started in May and allowed the timely planting of 2023 cereal crops in most areas, except in some southern parts where the onset of the rains had some delay. Cumulative rainfall amounts since May have generally been average to above average in most producing areas, resulting in favourable moisture conditions for crop establishment and development. However, in localized southern parts of the country, prolonged dry spells constrained planting activities and caused wilting of crops.

In the regions of Ouaddaï and Sila, a slight increase in planted area was recorded due to the deployment of tractors and plows. Conversely, the lack of agricultural equipment and inputs led to a reduction in cultivated area in Logone Oriental and Mandoul regions. Furthermore, insecurity in Lac Region and conflicts between farmers and herders in southern areas are likely to cause localized production shortfalls.

Weather forecasts for August and September point to drier‑than‑average conditions in most southern areas. Conversely, localized areas in the extreme south and central areas are likely to receive average to above‑average rainfall amounts, which could benefit crop development, but also heighten the risk of flooding.

Prices of coarse grains higher year‑on‑year

Retail prices of locally‑produced maize and sorghum registered slight seasonal increases, up to 6 percent, between January and May 2023 (latest available data), while prices of millet followed mixed trends. The most pronounced increases in prices of coarse grains were recorded in the market of Abéché, located in a cereal‑deficit area, where prices of sorghum and millet rose by 10 and 20 percent, respectively. Retail prices of millet were up to 12 percent above their year‑earlier levels in May 2023 across the country, while prices of sorghum and maize were between 5 and 25 percent higher on a yearly basis. The elevated prices of coarse grains were mainly underpinned by high fuel prices as well as flood‑induced crop losses in 2022, which reduced supply in local markets.

Influx of refugees from the Sudan raises food security concerns

According to the latest “Cadre Harmonisé” (CH) analysis, about 1.86 million people are projected to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between June and August 2023, including nearly 107 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This would be an overall decrease in the number of acutely food insecure people compared to the previous year, when about 2.1 million people were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. However, the most recent CH analysis was carried out in March 2023 and, therefore, it did not take into account the impact of the recent outbreak of the armed conflict in the Sudan and the consequent influx of refugees in the country.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), since the eruption of the conflict in the Sudan in mid‑April 2023, about 330 000 people have crossed the border to seek refuge in the country, mostly in Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira and Sila regions. The food security situation of refugees, returnees and host communities is deteriorating due to inadequate humanitarian assistance caused by delays in funding of international humanitarian partners. Consequently, pressure on food stocks and livelihoods of local households is increasing.

Acute food insecurity is a concern also in Lac Region, where insecurity continues to disrupt livelihoods and has caused large displacements. By April 2023, over 380 000 people were internally displaced and most of them are heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance. However, funding shortfalls forced to cut assistance in April and May, which aggravated the food insecurity of displaced people as well as vulnerable households in host communities.

Furthermore, the depletion of cereal stocks and rising prices of cereals are limiting food access of poor households in Bahr el Gazel, Kanem, Tibesti and Ennedi Ouest regions. The halt in imports of food commodities from the Sudan is an additional factor that aggravates local food insecurity, in particular in Ennedi Est Region.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .