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Reference Date: 11-November-2014


  1. 2014 main season paddy production forecast to decline slightly from last year’s record output

  2. Rice exports in 2014 expected to increase considerably from last year’s low level

  3. Domestic prices of rice remain generally stable

  4. Overall food security in the country is satisfactory

2014 main season paddy output to decline slightly from last year’s record level

Harvesting of the 2014, main season rice crop, accounting for over 70 percent of the annual production, began in early October and is expected to last until January. Below-average monsoon rains between May and early July particularly over the northern and central producing areas, delayed somewhat planting activities. However, rains improved from mid-July over much of the country, permitting rice transplanting operations to pick up and benefitting crop development. The total area planted to rice this season is officially estimated to have decreased to 10.3 million hectares, slightly below the average level of the same season last year, in response to low prices at planting time. Considering the slight contraction in area planted and assuming average yields, FAO preliminarily forecasts the 2014 main season rice production at 27.5 million tonnes, 2 percent below last year’s record output. Including an average 2014/15 secondary season output, the 2014 aggregate rice production is tentatively forecast at 37.5 million tonnes, some 2 percent below last year’s bumper level.

The 2014 maize crop, harvested by mid-September, is officially estimated at 5 million tonnes close to last year’s record level.

Rice exports in 2014 forecast to increase considerably from last year’s low level

Ample supplies from the record paddy production in 2013 and high carryover stocks together with the resumption of sales from Government warehouses since August are expected to result in 9.6 million tonnes of rice exports in 2014, some 45 percent from last year’s low level and 15 percent above the average level of the previous five years. Between late May and July this year, the Government temporarily suspended rice sales from public stocks. However, some releases took place under pre-existing sales agreements and Government-to-Government commitment with China. Stock sales have been resumed since August but through small volumes with the aim to keep local prices stable. The country does not produce wheat hence the entire quantity (about 2 million tonnes) is imported.

Domestic prices of rice remain generally stable

Domestic rice prices were relatively stable in October mainly as a result of lower export activity. The reduced volumes of rice released from Government stocks contributed to keep quotations close to their previous month’s level. Prices are expected to decline in November with the peak of the 2014 main season harvest.

The latest official data indicate that the national year-on-year inflation rate in October 2014 was 1.5 percent.

Relevant links:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles