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Reference Date: 30-October-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. 2014 aggregate cereal production declined slightly from last year’s level

  2. Wheat imports in 2014/15 marketing year forecast to increase

  3. Prices of wheat flour generally stable and around their year-earlier levels

2014 aggregate cereal production declined slightly from last year’s level

Harvesting of 2014 winter and spring crops, mainly wheat, barley and maize was completed by the end of September. FAO’s latest estimate puts the 2014 wheat production at 745 000 tonnes, 4 percent below last year’s near-average level. The decrease is the result of lower yields, following shortages of irrigation water during the growing season and a small contraction in area planted. Similarly, 2014 maize production is estimated to decrease by 7 percent compared to last year’s good level and reach 100 000 tonnes. The 2014 aggregate cereal output is set at 1.1 million tonnes, 3 percent down from last year’s good level and close to the five-year average.

Planting of 2015 winter crops, including wheat and barley, started in mid-August and will continue until mid-November. Weather conditions between August and mid-October have been generally favourable, benefiting planting activities and early development of crops.

Wheat imports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) are forecast to increase

The country depends heavily on cereal imports, mainly wheat, which accounts for almost 98 percent of the total cereal import requirements. Wheat imports in the 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.05 million tonnes, 4 percent above last year’s near-average level. Wheat and barley are mainly imported from Kazakhstan, while rice is largely sourced from the Russian Federation.

Prices of wheat flour generally stable and around their year-earlier levels

Prices of wheat flour strengthened somewhat in September and were around their levels at the same time last year. The slight decrease in the 2014 wheat output, compared with the previous two years of good production, more than compensated the downward pressure from the recently-completed harvest. Increased fuel prices, mainly reflecting higher costs in the Russian Federation, provided additional support. Prices of staple potatoes remained unchanged or continued to decline and were well below their peaks of May this year, although they remained generally higher than in September 2013.

According to official reports, approximately 35 percent of the population was estimated to live under the poverty line in 2013. The ratio of households’ budget allocated to food remained high and was estimated at around 56 percent in early 2014.









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 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2009, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1996
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