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Reference Date: 13-August-2014


  1. Aggregate cereal production in 2014 is forecast to increase slightly

  2. Wheat imports in the 2014/15 marketing year forecast to be close to last year’s average level

  3. Wheat flour prices remained stable in July

Aggregate cereal production in 2014 is forecast to increase slightly

Harvesting of the winter crops (mainly wheat and barley) is nearing completion, while that of spring crops (mainly maize and rice) just started and is expected to continue until the end of September. On average, winter crops account for about 80 percent of the total cereal output. FAO’s latest forecast for the 2014 wheat production stands at 800 000 tonnes, 3 percent up from last year’s near-average level. The increase is mainly attributed to anticipated record yields, following favourable weather conditions during the growing season. Similarly, prospects for the 2014 barley, maize and rice crops are good, mainly as a result of above-average rains and adequate supplies of irrigation water. Taking into account the current conditions of the winter and spring crops, the 2014 aggregate cereal production is forecast at 1.13 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s good level.

Wheat imports in the 2014/15 marketing year are forecast at a similar level to last year

The country depends heavily on cereal imports, mainly wheat, which accounts for almost 90 percent of total cereal import requirements. Wheat imports in the 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.1 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s average level. Wheat and barley is mainly imported from Kazakhstan, while rice is largely sourced from the Russian Federation.

Wheat flour prices were stable in July

Wheat flour prices were stable in July, with new supplies from the 2014 harvest entering the market. Overall, prices were below their year-earlier levels, as a result of two consecutive good outputs and adequate imports from Kazakhstan.

Prices of potatoes, another important staple, recorded sharp seasonal declines for the second consecutive month in July, but still remained considerably higher than their year-earlier levels. Similarly, prices of beef have generally increased since March 2014 and were at record levels in July, due to strong domestic demand.

According to official reports, approximately 35 percent of the population was estimated to live under the poverty line in 2013. The ratio of households’ budget allocated to food remained high and was estimated at around 56 percent in early 2014.

Relevant links:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2009, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1996
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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