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Reference Date: 31-March-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Early forecast points to small decline in 2016 cereal production

  2. Cereal production declined slightly in 2015

  3. Wheat imports in 2015/16 marketing year are forecast similar to previous year’s level

  4. Prices of wheat flour hit new record levels in January

Early forecast points to small decline in 2016 cereal production

Lower-than-average precipitation and unusually warm weather during the winter raised some concerns during the past months for this year’s winter wheat crop prospects. However, recent remote sensing data shows that vegetation conditions in most of the country are normal or above average for this stage of the season, indicating that soil moisture reserves have been adequate for vegetative development of crops that have come out of dormancy earlier than normal with the warmer temperatures. Planting of the 2016 spring cereal crops will start in April.

Cereal production declined slightly in 2015

FAO’s estimate puts 2015 cereal production at 1.2 million tonnes, around 2 percent less than in the previous year but still above the five‑year average. Aggregate wheat production is estimated at 850 000 tonnes, slightly below the 2014 above‑average level. Maize production is estimated at 100 000 tonnes, unchanged from the previous year.

Wheat imports in 2015/16 marketing year are forecast similar to previous year’s level

Tajikistan depends heavily on imports to meet its cereal consumption needs and the bulk of it is wheat, which accounts for about 85 percent of domestic cereal utilization. Wheat and barley is mainly imported from Kazakhstan, while rice is largely sourced from the Russian Federation. Wheat imports in the 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.1 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s level. However, the structure of wheat imports has been changing over the last years. Due to increased grain processing capacity inside the country, the Government has been decreasing the share of wheat flour and increasing the share of wheat grain in total imports. In 2015/16, the share of wheat grain is expected to be around 84 percent.

Prices of wheat flour hit new record levels in January

Prices of wheat flour reached a record in January 2016 due to the persistent depreciation of the local currency, which lost around one‑third of its value against the US dollar in the past year, sharply increasing prices of imported goods. However, in February, prices eased down by about 3 percent from January’s record level reflecting decreased wheat export quotations from Kazakhstan. Prices of potatoes, another important staple, increased in February although they remained more than 30 percent below their exceptionally high levels a year earlier.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2009, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1996
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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