Reference Date: 5-October-2023

Favourable rainfall and irrigation conditions resulted in above-average cereal production in 2023

Harvesting of 2023 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat, which were planted between September and November 2022, concluded in June. According to the preliminary results of the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM), carried out with the technical support of the Ministry of (MoA) and the Agency on Statistics (AoS) under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, the 2023 aggregate cereal output is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, 22 percent above the five-year average level. Production of wheat is set at an above-average level of 1.05 million tonnes, while the outputs of maize and barley are estimated at 227 000 and 169 000 tonnes, respectively, both above average levels. In 2023, crops benefited from favourable rainfall and irrigation conditions, together with lower prices of farming inputs, such as fertilizers,seeds, pesticides and fuel. Particularly low temperatures during the 2022/23 had a beneficial effect on field crops by killing wintering eggs of pests.

Planting of the 2024 winter cereal crops is ongoing and crops will be harvested next year from June onwards (depend agroclimate zones).

Ceral imports forecast at below-average level in 2023/24

Imports account for more than half of the domestic consumption needs of cereals and wheat represents more than 90 percent of the cereal imports. Import requirements of wheat in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at average level of 1 million tonnes. During the last ten years, due to improved local milling capacities, imports of wheat grain have been increasing, while purchases of wheat flour have decreased by almost 90 percent.

Prices of wheat flour lower than year before

Food inflation in 2023 is estimated at 1.1 percent and prices of national and imported food commodities have slightly increased between May 2022 and May 2023. However, prices of agriculture inputs, such as fertilizers, pesticides, machinery (mechanization) and fuel, have decreased in 2023 due to the high volume of imports from the Russian Federation, China and Uzbekistan.

National average retail prices of first grade wheat flour declined in the second quarter of 2023 and remained slightly lower compared to the previous year. In April 2023, the average national retail price of wheat flour was 10 percent lower than in April 2022. By contrast, prices of potatoes showed a seasonal increase between April and October 2023, increasing sharply before the main harvest and then decreasing with the start of the new planting season.

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This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observations for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .