Reference Date: 10-December-2012
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Above average cereal harvest gathered in 2012
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Relatively stable domestic grain prices observed but high meat and vegetable prices contribute to increased inflation
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Economic growth recovers but high unemployment rates, in particular among young people, remains a concern
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The winter cropping season has begun under generally favourable conditions
The new crop year (2012/13) started with above normal rainfall in September and October, albeit with moisture concentrated in a few days. Above average rainfall contributed to recovery of water reserves, improved topsoil moisture and encouraged early winter grain planting, for harvest from May/June 2013. For the current crop year, the government decided to maintain the seed and fertiliser prices at the levels of the previous year while subsidy rates were revised to reflect an increased cost of fuel and labour.
Elsewhere, adult groups of locust moved north to southern Tunisia in November. Scattered adults and groups may appear in the south during periods of warm southerly winds.
Above average cereal harvest gathered in 2012
The 2012 cereal production reached over 2.6 million tonnes. At this level, the crop is about 13 percent higher than last year’s already above average crop and some 40 percent above the previous five years average. Most of the grain produced is wheat: the 2012 wheat crop was almost 1.8 million tonnes, an increase of about 11 percent compared to last year. However, in Tunisia crop production varies markedly from year to year depending on significant rainfall variations. Harvest and post-harvest losses typically represent 10 – 15 percent of production.
Tunisia relies heavily on grain imports, mainly wheat, even in good production years. Accordingly, cereal imports (mainly wheat) in the current marketing year 2012/13 are forecast at about 2.6 million tonnes, about the same as last year and 15 percent less than the five-year average.
Domestic grain prices stable but some increases observed in the rate of inflation
In spite of the country’s high import dependency rate, the rise in international grain prices has not translated into high domestic prices, mainly due to Government subsidies on basic food items. Prices of wheat products, the main staple in the country, are relatively stable, as reflected by very low inflation of bread and cereals (3 percent on yearly basis in November 2012). Overall, the consumer price index (CPI) reached 5.55 percent in November 2012 on yearly basis, while the food price inflation reached 7.8 percent, fuelled by over 10 percent increases in meat and vegetable prices.
Economic growth recovers but unemployment rate remains high
The economy is slowly recovering from the 1.8 percent contraction in 2011 to a growth of about 3 percent in the first nine months of 2012. Strong performances from the agricultural, services, mining and energy sectors have contributed to the recovery. The forecast for the full year of 2012 is put at 2.7 percent while a growth of 3.3 percent is expected in 2013 anticipating a recovery in tourism revenues and renewed flows of foreign direct investments.
The Tunisian economy is severely affected by the economic and financial difficulties that the countries of the European Union, Tunisia’s main trading partners, are going through.
The unemployment rate remains at high level (so far 17.6 percent in 2012, a slight decrease from 19 percent in 2011). Youth unemployment (15-29 year olds) remains particularly high reaching 35.6 percent in the first trimester of 2012. The Government is seeking external assistance and loans in order to support economic growth and reduce regional disparities in the country. One such loan amounting to Euro 387.6 million was granted from the African Development Bank in the autumn of 2012.