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Reference Date: 27-January-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Concerns about weather conditions in Anatolia

  2. Above average cereal harvest gathered in 2013

  3. Cereal exports and imports expected to decline in 2013/14

  4. Aggregate food price index increased recently

Planting of winter grains to be harvested from May 2014 is completed. Following an unfavourably dry autumn and a cold snap in December, concerns over poor establishment of wheat and barley prevail in the key Turkish winter grain area in Anatolia. Elsewhere in central Turkey, precipitation since early September locally totalled less than 25 percent of normal, diminishing soil moisture reserves for spring growth.

Above average cereal harvest gathered in 2013

Estimates from the Turkish Statistical Institute indicated a 2013 cereal crop of about 37.5 million tonnes (an increase of about 12 percent on last year). The wheat harvest, estimated at 22.05 million tonnes, was about 10 percent higher than the previous five-year average and the last year’s crop.

Similarly, barley production in 2013 was put at around 8 million tonnes, about 11 and 12 percent above last year and the five-year average respectively. Maize production increased by 28 percent compared to last year, owing to an increase in the second crop area in Central Anatolia, Cukurova and Mediterranean regions. High level of investment in the dairy and poultry sectors resulted in increased feed, and maize, demand.

Both cereal imports and exports expected to decline in 2013/14

In marketing year 2013/14 (July/June), aggregate cereal imports, mainly wheat, are forecast to decrease to 3 million tonnes from last year’s 3.8 million tonnes. Likewise, cereal exports, mainly wheat flour and durum wheat, are forecast to decrease to 3.4 million tonnes, about 5 percent below average and about 13 percent below last year.

Still, Turkey remains one of the leading exporters of wheat flour in the world. In 2013/14, cereal exports are expected to outperform imports by about 10 percent compared to the 2 percent the previous year.

As of December 2013, the Turkish Grain Board purchased locally about 2 million tonnes of wheat (about 9 percent of wheat production) in cash at the intervention prices of TRY 620-765/tonne (USD 307-380) depending on type and quality.

Increase in food inflation

Latest figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute (December 2013) indicate a higher annual food inflation rate of 9.67 percent while the overall CPI in December 2013 stood at 7.4 percent. Earlier in 2013, food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation lingered between 6 to 8 percent. Weakening of the Turkish lira would likely increase the rate of inflation.

Increased Number of Syrian Refugees

According to UNHCR data, the total number of Syrian refugees in the neighbouring countries reached almost 2.5 million in January 2014, mostly residing in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. The number of Syrian refugees registered in Turkey exceeded 575 000, of which about 215 000 reside in about 22 camps in ten southern or southeastern provinces, the part of the country that shares border with unrest-torn Syria. Some of the refugees, however, have been reported to have returned to Syria.

The World Food Programme (WFP) complements the Government’s effort in supporting the refugees by supplying food vouchers to about 185 000 recipients in December 2013.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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