Reference Date: 17-July-2023

Official forecast points to above‑average sowings of 2023 wheat crop

Planting operations of the 2023 wheat crop are ongoing and the area sown is officially forecast at 301 000 hectares, about 25 percent above the previous five‑year average. The large area sown is the result of some farmers opting to plant wheat rather than rapeseed, due to the delayed harvesting operations of precedent maize and soybean crops that shortened the growing season for rapeseed. According to satellite imagery, germinating crops are in good conditions in the main producing western region (VCI Map). Weather forecasts indicate above‑average rainfall amounts in the October‑December period, which coincides with crop maturation and harvesting. If excessive rans materialize during this period, it could lower crop yields and hamper harvesting operations, with negative effects on production.

Dryness‑stricken 2023 maize production estimated well below average

Despite the above‑average planted area, which was more than 20 percent up from a year earlier, 2023 maize production is officially estimated at 266 000 tonnes, over 60 percent below the five‑year average. With more than 90 percent of planted area to maize crop being rainfed, prolonged drought conditions between October 2022 and February 2023 caused significant crop losses. The government declared an Agriculture and Livestock Emergency in October 2022 (Ministerial Resolution 958/2022), which was extended in 24 April 2023 for a period of 150 days.

By contrast, paddy production is officially estimated at 1.37 million tonnes, 8 percent above the average, due to above average yields. Dry weather conditions did not affect paddy crops, as they are entirely cultivated under irrigation.

Cereal exports in 2023/24 marketing year forecast at high levels

Cereal exports in the 2023/24 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at nearly 1.9 million tonnes, more than 20 percent above the five‑year average. This reflects an ample exportable surplus of rice, which account for about 55 percent of the total annual cereal exports, following the bumper paddy harvest in 2023.

Cereal import requirements are forecast to increase sharply in 2023/24 due to the decline in maize production. Maize imports during the first five months of 2023, mostly from Paraguay and Argentina, were more than double the average of the same period.

Prices of maize rose between April and June to levels 10 percent higher year‑on‑year

Wholesale prices of maize soared in the April‑June period, as the drought‑induced decline in production more than offset seasonal downward pressure from the recently completed harvest. As of June 2023, maize prices were 10 percent above their year‑earlier levels.

In the first half of 2023, prices of wheat grain weakened modestly, with markets well supplied by the above‑average output harvested in 2022. Prices in June were more than 20 percent below their high levels a year earlier, when the upsurge in international quotations following the onset of the war in Ukraine was transmitted to domestic prices.

After a short‑lived increase last May, prices of rice resumed the declining trend in June, which have been observed since February 2022, as a result of bumper harvests in 2022 and 2023. Prices in June were 6 percent lower year‑on‑year.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .