GIEWS Country Briefs

Reference Date: 07-August-2012

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT Official forecasts point to sharp increase in the 2012 maize and rice production Inflation rate slows down in the first six months of 2012

Cereal production to increase in 2012

Sowing of the 2012 winter season rice and maize crops was completed in July, under favourable weather conditions. Assuming normal precipitation during the remainder of the season, production is officially forecast to increase markedly from last year’s reduced level. This mainly reflects Government production support programs, which include, higher producer prices, distribution of agricultural inputs and credit facilities. The first summer season cereal output, harvested earlier in the year, was estimated to be good. In aggregate, official forecasts point to a recovery in 2012 maize production (summer and winter seasons) to some 3 million tonnes, 42 percent up from the 2011 level and record. Rice production is anticipated at about 1.1 million tonnes, 33 percent higher than in the previous year.

The inflation rate in the first six months of 2012 was 7.5 percent, well below the record highs reached at the same time in the past four years (15 percent in 2008, 11 percent in 2009, 16 percent in 2010 and 13 percent in 2011). This is mainly the result of several measures adopted by the Government to regulate prices of basic food goods. The national food scarcity index, which measures the absence of products on the market, fell to 12 percent in June from 14 percent in May.