Reference Date: 28-March-2024

Below‑average sowings for 2024 winter/spring cereal crops

Planting of the 2024 winter/spring paddy crop, mostly irrigated and accounting for about 45 percent of the annual output, is nearing completion. The area planted is forecast to be below the five‑year average largely due to dry weather conditions in parts of the country associated with the El Niño event. Satellite imagery indicates below‑average vegetation conditions (red, orange and yellow colours on the VCI map) in some northeastern and central parts of the country, and in southwestern coastal areas. In these areas, yield prospects of early‑planted crops are unfavourable. In the rest of the country, including the main paddy producing Mekong River Delta, located in the south, and Red River Delta, located in the north, sufficient availability of irrigation water benefitted planting operations and average to above‑average conditions of paddy crops are observed. Planting of the 2024 main winter/spring maize crop finalized in February 2024 and sowings are estimated to be well below average, mostly due to soil moisture deficits in northern and central parts of the country, where maize cultivation is concentrated. Some farmers opted to grow more profitable vegetables, fruits and other cash crops, contributing to area reduction. Yields of winter/spring maize crops are also expected to be below average.

Weather forecasts indicate a high likelihood of below‑average precipitation amounts and elevated temperatures between March and May 2024 over large parts of the country. If this forecast materializes, yields of late‑planted rainfed winter/spring crops and planting operations of rainfed 2024 summer/autumn crops, expected to begin in April 2024, may be affected.

Average cereal production obtained in 2023

The 2023 paddy cropping season finalized in December 2023 and production is officially estimated at an average level of 43.5 million tonnes. Production of the 2023 maize crop, harvested in September 2023, is estimated at 4.4 million tonnes, 5 percent below the average, mostly due to a reduction in sowings.

Cereal import requirements forecast at average level in 2023/24 marketing year (June/July)

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at an average level of 15.6 million tonnes. Imports of maize, which account for most of the total cereal imports, are projected at an average level of 10 million tonnes. Wheat is not produced in the country and imports are forecast at 4 million tonnes, 5 percent above the five‑year average, driven by an increase in demand for milling wheat due to increasing population and the recovery in the tourism sector after the COVID‑19 pandemic.

Rice exports in the 2024 calendar year are forecast a 7.6 million tonnes, 9.5 percent below the 2023 estimate.

Prices of rice higher year‑on‑year in February 2024

Wholesale prices of rice steadily increased from March to December 2023, reaching record levels, due to strong import demand and high cost of production and transport. In February 2024, prices declined sharply due to the imminent start of the 2024 winter/spring harvest. However, prices remained about 30 percent higher than the elevated level a year earlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .