Reference Date: 4-August-2023

Concerns for production of 2023 main season crops due to erratic rains and unfavourable weather forecasts

Planting of the 2023 main season crops (wheat, barley, sorghum, maize, teff and pulses), for harvest from November, has been concluded in July in central and western Anseba, Debub, Maekel and Gash Barka regions.

The 2023 “Kiremti” rainy season, which normally extends from late June to September, had an early onset, with abundant rains received in the first half of June. Subsequently, rains were below-average between mid-June and mid-July over most key cropping areas (see Precipitation Anomaly map). Current vegetation conditions are above-average due to the moisture surpluses accumulated in the first half of June, but they may rapidly deteriorate if rains continue at below-average levels.

According to the latest weather forecast by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), the remainder of the “Kiremti” rainy season is expected to be characterized by below-average rainfall amounts over most cropping areas, with a likely negative impact on yields. Rainfall performance in the next weeks will be crucial for crop development and a close monitoring is warranted.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .