<html> <head> <META http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html"> <title>GIEWS Country Updates--July 2006</title> <meta name="Author" content="global information and early warning system on food and agriculture"> <meta name="Keywords" content="Foodcrops, Food, crops, shortages, production, food aid, food supply, current agricultural situation, agriculture, agricultural, hunger, food security, trade, country-specific, early warning, Geographic, Regional Infomation, Outlook, Prospects, forecast, trade, production,cereals,cereal"> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="outlook.css"> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="print.css"> </head> <body rightmargin="0" bottommargin="0" leftmargin="0" topmargin="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" bgcolor="white"> <table align="center" width="750" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" bgcolor="white" class="main"> <tr><td><a name="TopOfPage"></a><table align="center" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" bgcolor="white"> <tr height="4"> <td height="4"><img src="http://www.fao.org/common/images/spacer.gif" width="100%" height="4"></td> </tr> </table> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" width="100%" align="center"> <tr> <td valign="middle" align="center" width="70"><a href="http://www.fao.org/english"><img onclick="this.blur();" border="0" src="fao.gif"></a></td> <td></td> <td class="food-outlook" valign="center" align="left">GIEWS COUNTRY UPDATES</td> <td valign="middle" align="center" width="70"><a href="http://www.fao.org/giews/english"><img onclick="this.blur();" border="0" src="giews.gif"></a></td> </tr> <tr><td colspan="4"><img src="http://www.fao.org/common/images/spacer.gif" height="2"></td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#003366"><td colspan="4"><img src="http://www.fao.org/common/images/spacer.gif" height="2"></td></tr> </table> <p align="center"><a href="0706e03.htm"><img src="previous.gif" border="0" alt="Previous page"></a><a href="0706e00.htm"><img src="toc.gif" border="0" alt="Table Of Contents"></a></p> <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" align="center" border="0"> <tr valign="top"> <td width="20%"> <table border="0"> <tr> <td valign="top"><img vspace="2" height="10" width="10" alt="" src="bullet_red.gif"></td> <td class="articleabstract"> <p><a href="0706e01.htm">AFRICA</a></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"><img vspace="2" height="10" width="10" alt="" src="bullet_red.gif"></td> <td class="articleabstract"> <p><a href="0706e02.htm">ASIA</a></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"><img vspace="2" height="10" width="10" alt="" src="bullet_red.gif"></td> <td class="articleabstract"> <p><a href="0706e03.htm">LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN</a></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"><img vspace="2" height="10" width="10" alt="" src="bullet_red.gif"></td> <td class="articleabstract"><i><b>NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE AND OCEANIA</b></i><table border="0"> <tr> <td valign="top"><img vspace="2" height="10" width="10" alt="" src="bullet_menulinks.gif"></td> <td class="menulinks"> <p><a href="#21">NORTH AMERICA</a></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"><img vspace="2" height="10" width="10" alt="" src="bullet_menulinks.gif"></td> <td class="menulinks"> <p><a href="#22">EUROPE</a></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"><img vspace="2" height="10" width="10" alt="" src="bullet_menulinks.gif"></td> <td class="menulinks"> <p><a href="#23">OCEANIA</a></p> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td class="articleabstract"> <h1 class="fq1" align="center">NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE AND OCEANIA</h1> <table border="0" width="100%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="100%"><a name="21"></a><h1 class="fq2">NORTH AMERICA</h1> </td> <td valign="top"><a href="#TopOfPage"><img src="top.gif" border="0" alt="Top"></a></td> </tr> </table> <p> <b>CANADA (27 June)</b></p> <p>Latest estimates from Statistics Canada, although still preliminary, indicate a 6 percent increase in the overall wheat area this year, a much larger increase than expected earlier, reflecting generally adequate moisture conditions and an improved price outlook during the planting period. All of the increase is seen in the non-Durum wheat area, which is estimated at about 8.7 million hectares, 16 percent above that of last year, while confirming earlier expectations, the Durum area is estimated to have shrunk to just 1.7 million hectares, about 26 percent down from 2005. However, assuming yields return closer to average following two years of above-average levels, which the seasonal conditions would currently point to, aggregate wheat output may decrease slightly from last year's level to about 26.3 million tonnes. For coarse grains, latest indications point to little change in the overall area but a switch to more oats and less barley compared to the previous year. With yields expected to return closer to average, as for wheat, the aggregate coarse grain output is forecast at 24.2 million tonnes, about 8 percent down from last year.</p> <p> <b>UNITED STATES (26 June)</b></p> <p>In the USDA's June Crop Report, the 2006 winter wheat production forecast was reduced further from expectations in May to 34.4 million tonnes, which would 16 percent below the 2005 output, reflecting persisting dry conditions, which have characterized the 2005/06 season. The harvest was already underway in the southern states as of early June and progress was reported to be more rapid than normal because of the prevailing hot and dry conditions. Regarding spring wheat, planting was virtually complete by the end of May. The USDA crop area report at the end of June estimated the area planted at about 6.7 million hectares just marginally below last year's area. A sharp reduction in the Durum area was mostly offset by an increase in the plantings of other spring wheat. Based on latest indications, the country's aggregate wheat output is set to fall sharply this year because of the large drop to area and yield of the winter crop, and is currently forecast by FAO at 49.4 million tonnes. With regard to coarse grains, planting of the main crops was virtually complete by late June. The area of maize is estimated to be about 3 percent down on the previous year but the crop is reported to be developing satisfactorily. As of late June, the condition of the bulk of the maize area was rated from fair to excellent, similar to last year at the same time. However, sorghum was fairing slightly less well with 20 percent of the crop rated as poor or very poor. Based on the early area indications, and assuming normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the season, aggregate 2006 coarse grains output in the United States is forecast at about 284 million tonnes, which would be 5 percent down from the previous year, but close to the average of the past five years. Of the total, maize would account for 268 million tonnes. The area sown to rice in 2006 is expected to have declined by about 12 percent from last year. The bulk of the crop had emerged by late June and its condition was mostly rated from good to excellent.</p> <table border="0" width="100%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="100%"><a name="22"></a><h1 class="fq2">EUROPE</h1> </td> <td valign="top"><a href="#TopOfPage"><img src="top.gif" border="0" alt="Top"></a></td> </tr> </table> <p> <b>EU (26 June)</b></p> <p>Total cereal production in the EU in 2006 is forecast at 269 million tonnes, which is 9 million tonnes higher than last year. The increase is mainly accounted for by France, Germany and Spain. Output of wheat is forecast to increase to 128.6 million tonnes, almost 4 percent up from last year's already above-average crop. In France, despite dry conditions at the beginning of the season, yields are expected to be higher than last year and, combined with an increased area, production is forecast to rise by about 5 percent to almost 39 million tonnes. In Germany, the wheat area has not changed significantly this year but despite an abnormally cold spring, which delayed crop development, higher yields are expected, and production is forecast to rise to 25 million tonnes, 5 percent up from 2005. Spain is also expected to harvest a larger wheat crop this year of about 6.2 million tonnes, which although somewhat down from earlier expectations, would still be well above last year's drought-stricken crop of just 3.8 million tonnes. Among the other major wheat producers, output is expected to change little in the United Kingdom, where forecast is to remain close to the five-year average at 14.7, but could drop again this year in Poland to about 8.3 million tonnes because of harsh winter conditions and a significant delay encountered with the spring wheat sowing campaign. Regarding coarse grains, the total EU output is forecast at 138.2 million tonnes, 4.6 million tonnes up from 2005. For barley, as for wheat, most of the increase is expected in France, Germany and Spain, partly due to increased areas and partly due to improved yields expected. The latter is most relevant in Spain where a significant recovery in yields of all cereals is expected after the severe drought-reduced levels last year. Maize production is not expected to change much in 2006. Slightly larger crops in France and Italy are likely to be offset by smaller harvests in Hungary and Germany.</p> <p> <b>ALBANIA (26 June)</b></p> <p>Generally satisfactory weather conditions are reported for the season. Output of wheat, the main cereal crop, is expected to remain around last year's level and the average of the past few years at about 260 000 tonnes. This implies that imports of wheat would also remain close to last year's level at about 390 000 tonnes, in order to meet normal utilization requirements of around 650 000 tonnes.</p> <p> <b>BELARUS (27 June)</b></p> <p>Prospects are good for cereal harvest this year despite harsh weather conditions last winter. The main winter cereal crops, barley and rye, are relatively resistant and winterkill was not as severe as initially thought. Cereal harvesting shall begin around the middle of July and the aggregate harvest is forecast at an about-average level of 5.8 million tonnes compared with just over 6 million tonnes in 2005. This aggregate includes 1 million tonnes of wheat, 1.8 million tonnes of barley, 1.6 million tones of rye and 625 000 tonnes of maize. </p> <p>Aggregate cereal imports during the 2006/07 marketing year are forecast at about 700 000 tonnes, including 300 000 tonnes of wheat, 270 000 tonnes of maize and 110 000 tonnes of barley. Cereal exports in the same period are forecast at 100 000 tonnes, all of which rye. </p> <p> <b>BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (28 June)</b></p> <p>Prospects for the 2006 cereal harvest are generally satisfactory. While exceptionally cold winter temperatures damaged some winter crops, spring conditions were favourable for development of these and the spring sown crops. Provided that late spring floods do not compromise a significant area of crops, the 2006 aggregate cereal output is forecast at just over 1 million tonnes similar to the harvest last year. This aggregate includes 180 000 tonnes of wheat, 750 000 tonnes of maize and 55 000 tonnes of barley. The cereal import requirement for the 2006/07 (July/June) marketing year is estimated at about 570 000 tonnes, including 40 000 tonnes in food aid. This includes some 400 000 tonnes of wheat, 150 000 tonnes of maize and 20 000 tonnes of barley. </p> <p> <b>BULGARIA (26 June)</b></p> <p>Cereal production in 2006 is forecast to decline for the second consecutive year. The expected reduction largely reflects less production of wheat, the main cereal crop, after severe floods hampered sowing last autumn, resulting in a reduction in area. Even with above-average yields expected, reflecting ample moisture supplies this season, wheat output is only likely to reach about 3.1 million tonnes compared to last year's about-average crop of 3.5 million tonnes. The area sown to maize this spring is reported to have increased slightly but yields are not expected to match the bumper levels achieved last year and output may fall somewhat. Output of barley is also expected to drop after a reduction of area due to adverse planting conditions and relatively poor prices.</p> <p> <b>CROATIA (28 June)</b></p> <p>Cereal harvesting in some parts of the country is about to begin and despite harsh winter weather, the aggregate output is forecast at 3.46 million tonnes, similar to the harvest last year. This aggregate includes 840 000 tonnes of wheat, 2.4 million tonnes of maize and 160 000 tonnes of barley. Total cereal exports during the 2006/07 (July/June) marketing year are forecast at about 270 000 tonnes of mainly maize and cereal imports in the same period are forecast at 112 000 tonnes.</p> <p> <b>MOLDOVA (27 June)</b></p> <p>Cereal harvesting is scheduled to begin by mid-July and prospects are good after favourable weather in spring helped crops recover from the effect of a harsh winter. The aggregate cereal harvest is forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, some 120 000 tonnes down from the above-average output last year. This total includes some 830 000 tonnes of wheat, 1.3 million tonnes of maize and 260 000 tonnes of barley. Aggregate cereal exports for the 2006/07 (July/June) marketing year are forecast at 255 000 tonnes, some 93 000 tonnes down from the current (2005/06), year coming to an end. During the current year cereal exports have included some 100 000 tonnes of wheat, 150 000 tonnes of barley and 98 000 tonnes of maize. </p> <p> <b>ROMANIA (26 June)</b></p> <p>Cereal production is tentatively forecast to fall in 2006, mostly on expectations of a smaller winter wheat crop. Inclement weather during the autumn sowing period led to area reductions, and harsh weather through the winter is expected to have had an adverse affect on yield potential. Moreover, several thousand hectares of wheat are reported to have been lost during severe flooding in the spring, although the extent of the flood damage to wheat crops is judged to have been much less than that which occurred in the previous year. Wheat output is tentatively forecast at 5.6 million tonnes, well down from last year's crop of 7.3 million tonnes. On the contrary, maize output may rise this year as ample water availability may have prompted an expansion of plantings and should support good yield prospects.</p> <p> <b>RUSSIAN FEDERATION (27 June)</b></p> <p>Grain harvesting has already begun in some southern parts of the country, somewhat earlier than normal, following favourable weather conditions during late and spring and early summer. Although winter cereals were severely damaged by harsh winter conditions and insufficient snow cover, which compromised nearly 20 percent of the area planted with winter grains, prospects for this year's aggregate cereal harvest seem less bleak than previously expected. The improvement is attributed to replanting of some winterkill areas, and good spring crop performance. The aggregate cereal harvest in 2006 is now tentatively forecast at about 74.6 million tonnes, some 2 million tonnes down on the harvest last year, but not that far below the five year average. Wheat was the worst affected cereal crop, which with output forecast at 42.7 million tonnes, would be 5 million tonnes down from last year's harvest. More resistant crops such as barley fared better and this year's barley crop is forecast at 18.5 million tonnes, nearly 3 million tonnes up on last year. The forecast aggregate output also includes some 3.1 million tonnes of rye, 3.4 million tonnes of maize and 5 million tonnes of oats. </p> <p>Total cereal exports in the 2006/07 (July/June) marketing year are forecast at 8.2 million tonnes, including 6.6 million tonnes of wheat and 1.4 million tonnes of barley. Aggregate cereal exports during the current marketing year (2005/06) are estimated at about 12.5 million tonnes, which includes about 10.8 million tonnes of wheat and 1.7 million tonnes of barley. </p> <p>Civil strife in Chechnya continues to disrupt social and economic activities. The conflict has displaced more than 300 000 people, 187 000 of whom are internally displaced, 30 000 live in Ingushetia and 9 000 live in Dagestan. </p> <p> <b>SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO (28 June)</b></p> <p>Cereal harvesting is about to begin in some parts of the country and the aggregate harvest is forecast at about 8.2 million tonnes, similar to last year's output but below earlier expectations. Prospects deteriorated through the winter due to harsh weather that reportedly damaged more than 5 percent of the winter cereals. The forecast harvest includes 1.7 million tonnes of wheat, 5.9 million tonnes of maize and 400 000 tonnes of barley. Cereal exports during the 2006/07 (July/June) marketing year are forecast at about 405 000 tonnes and include 100 000 tonnes of wheat, 280 000 tonnes of maize and 25 000 tonnes of barley. Highly quality food wheat import for the same period is forecast at about 110 000 tonnes. </p> <p> <b>SLOVENIA (26 June)</b></p> <p>According to the latest official estimates, the areas planted to all the major cereals have increased for the 2006 harvest. The area of wheat, the main crop grown, is estimated to be up by 6 percent at about 32 000 hectares. Favourable growing conditions so far point also to improved yields compared to 2005, and overall cereal output could increase by about 10 percent to some 580 000 tonnes, well above the average of the past five years.</p> <p> <b>FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (26 June)</b></p> <p>Latest indications suggest a smaller cereal output (mostly wheat) in 2006 following a reduction in plantings. Despite satisfactory yield prospects reflecting generally favourable weather this season, wheat output may fall below average to about 300 000 tonnes from nearly 400 000 tonnes estimated for 2005. Barley output is also seen to drop to about 90 000 tonnes, from about 140 000 tonnes last year.</p> <p> <b>UKRAINE (27 June)</b></p> <p>Cereal harvesting in parts of Ukraine has already begun and prospects are less pessimistic than previously thought. Harsh winter conditions had compromised significant areas planted with winter cereals, but favourable weather conditions in the spring allowed some replanting and replenished soil moisture improving yields. The aggregate cereal harvest is now forecast at about 33.8 million tonnes below last year but close to the five-year average. Wheat was the most affected by the harsh winter and output is forecast at about 12.5 million tonnes, 6.2 million tonnes down from 2005. The forecast harvest also includes some 11.2 million tonnes of barley (9 million tonnes in 2005) and 7.7 million tonnes of maize. </p> <p>Aggregate cereal exports in 2006/07 (July/June) marketing year are forecast at just over 9 million tonnes, compared with 12.5 million tonnes in 2005/06. The forecast cereal exports during the coming marketing year includes 2.1 million tonnes of wheat, 4.2 million tonnes of barley and 2.7 million tonnes of maize. </p> <table border="0" width="100%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="3"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="100%"><a name="23"></a><h1 class="fq2">OCEANIA</h1> </td> <td valign="top"><a href="#TopOfPage"><img src="top.gif" border="0" alt="Top"></a></td> </tr> </table> <p> <b>AUSTRALIA (26 June)</b></p> <p>Australia is expecting a drier than average winter cropping season in 2006 and winter grain production is tentatively forecast to decline by 11 percent from last year's above-average crop. The planting season started late or was hampered in most states because of dry conditions. As a result, the area planted is estimated to have declined in all states with the exception of South Australia, and yields are also forecast to fall compared to the previous year, although may remain above or close to the five-year average. The June Crop Report released by The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) forecasts the 2006 wheat output at 22.8 million tonnes, about 9 percent down from 2005. Output of barley is also seen down, by about 14 percent at 8.5 million tonnes. The small summer grain harvest is virtually completed. Output of sorghum is estimated at about 2 million tonnes compared to almost 2.2 million tonnes in the previous year. After a promising start to the season, hot and dry conditions in early 2006 in the main producing areas of New South Wales and southern Queensland significantly reduced yield potential. By contrast, rice production, all of which is in New South Wales, is estimated to have more than tripled to over 1 million tonnes, reflecting higher irrigation water allocations and generally better growing conditions.</p> </td> </tr> </table> <p align="center"><a href="0706e03.htm"><img src="previous.gif" border="0" alt="Previous page"></a><a href="0706e00.htm"><img src="toc.gif" border="0" alt="Table Of Contents"></a></p> <table align="center" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" width="100%"> <tr height="10"> <td colspan="4"><img height="10" width="100%" src="http://www.fao.org/common/images/spacer.gif"></td> </tr> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.fao.org/giews/english/common/footer_3.htm"></script> </table> <p></p> <p></p> </td></tr> </table> </body> </html>