International wheat prices that had been increasing since the second half of December declined in the second week of January. Wheat prices rose reflecting a lower than earlier expected Argentina wheat harvest and USDA reports showing a 9 percent decrease in the area planted to winter wheat in the United States (world largest wheat exporter). However, abundant wheat supplies following the 2008 world wheat record production continues to keep prices under downward pressure. The US wheat (No.2 Hard Red Winter, f.o.b. Gulf) averaged USD 262 in the first two weeks of January, 9 percent higher than the December average but 31 percent down from the January average last year.
As per wheat, international maize prices had also been on the increase for four consecutive weeks, but fell in the second week of January. Prices were supported by dry conditions in Argentina, some recovery in oil prices and expectations of a possible cut in this year’s maize plantings in the United States driven by difficult economic conditions and high input costs. However, USDA reports with lower demand estimates for the United States maize and much higher forecasts for end-season stocks (+ 8 million tonnes) provided support to US prices in the past week. The US maize (No. 2 Yellow, Gulf) averaged USD 173 per tonne in the first two weeks of January, 8 percent the December average but 16 percent below the January average last year.
International rice prices have been increasing since the third week of December. The price of the benchmark Thai white rice 100% B averaged USD 599 per tonne in the first two weeks of January, USD 17 per tonne down from the December average, and well above (56 percent) the price at the same time last year. The slight rebounding of international rice prices is to be attributed to the operation of the pledging programme in Thailand, which has moved some 4 million tonnes of paddy away from the market into public inventories at a price reported to be 20 percent higher than market levels. Thus, overall, export availabilities remain tight. The authorities in Thailand have again made a reference to an alliance among exporters, to avert a return to low world prices. Export prices from other origins moved in mixed directions. They were stable in Viet Nam, where rice was heavily discounted compared with Thailand, which attracted importers; they moved up in Pakistan, where the Government also has taken a proactive role in rice trade, but they showed signs of weakening in the United States.
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