International wheat prices that had been increasing since the second half of December declined in the second and third weeks of January. Wheat prices rose reflecting a lower than earlier expected Argentina wheat harvest and USDA reports showing a 9 percent decrease in the area planted to winter wheat in the United States (world largest wheat exporter). However, abundant wheat supplies following the 2008 world wheat record production continues to keep prices under downward pressure. The US wheat (No.2 Hard Red Winter, f.o.b. Gulf) averaged USD 256 in the first three weeks of January, 7 percent higher than the December average but 33 percent down from the January average last year. After a sharp drop last week, wheat futures moved mostly sideways
As per wheat, international maize prices that had also been on the increase for four consecutive weeks fell in the second week of January but increased again last week. Prices were supported by dry conditions for this year's maize crop in Argentina and Brazil, and expectations of a possible cut in plantings in the United States driven by difficult economic conditions and high input costs. However, USDA reports in mid-January with lower demand estimates for the United States maize and much higher forecasts for end-season stocks (+ 8 million tonnes) put downward pressure on prices. The US maize (No. 2 Yellow, Gulf) averaged USD 172 per tonne in the first two weeks of January, 8 percent the December average but 17 percent below the January average last year.
International rice prices have been increasing since the third week of December. The price of the benchmark Thai white rice 100% B averaged USD 607 per tonne in the first three weeks of January, USD 25 per tonne down from the December average, and well above (58 percent) the price at the same time last year. The rebounding of international rice prices is to be attributed to the operation of the pledging programme in Thailand, which has moved some 4 million tonnes of paddy away from the market into public inventories at a price reported to be 20 percent higher than market levels. Thus, overall, export availabilities remain tight. The authorities in Thailand have again made a reference to an alliance among exporters, to avert a return to low world prices. By contrast, prices from other major sources followed the opposite direction, falling in Viet Nam, Pakistan and the United States.
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