Tighter supplies of red king crab

30/03/2020

As predicted, Alaskan king crab quotas for the 2019 – 2020 season were reduced but the snow crab quota was increased by 23 percent. Thus, supplies of snow crab will rise in 2020, and prices may fall. 

Supplies

In October, the Bristol Bay red king crab quota for the 2019 – 2020 season was set at 1 772 tonnes, down by 10 percent from the 1 904 tonne quota in the 2018 – 2019 season. At the same time, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) announced that the quota for the 2019 – 2020 season for Alaska snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in the Bering Sea was increased by 23 percent to 15 431 tonnes, up from 12 510 tonnes for the 2018 – 2019 season. The king crab, which was released in the Barents Sea by the Russian Federation decades ago, has spread from Russian waters westward and southward along the Norwegian coast. Now there are signs that the king crab may also move north.

While most of the king crab resource in the Barents Sea is thought to be on the Russian side, researchers are now seeing signs of it moving west and north to Bear Island and further to Svalbard, which it is expected to reach by 2030. In December 2019, it was announced that the Oregon Dungeness crab season would be postponed until the end of 2019. The decision was based on the results of crab tests that revealed too small sizes and low meat. The crab season usually runs until the end of the summer, but most of the landings are in the beginning of the season. 

International trade

Global trade of crab is relatively stable at the moment. Since 2017, import volumes have been steady, with only very minor fluctuations. Total global crab imports increased by 1.6 percent during the first nine months of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. The largest importer, the United States of America, increased imports by 8.4 percent to 89 524 tonnes during the nine month period compared to the same period in 2018. Of the other major importing countries, the Republic of Korea had the strongest growth (+26.5 percent) at 38 339 tonnes, while China’s imports declined by 6.5 percent to 57 772 tonnes.

Chinese tariffs are having an effect on Alaskan sales of crab to China. United States of America's crab exporting firms are now reporting an 80 percent decline in exports of live king crab to China. These problems favoured Russian exporters, who have been able to fill the gap and compete strongly on price. 

Canadian and European crab exporters were busy supplying crab to China ahead of Chinese New Year, which started on 26 January 2019. From January-November 2019, China imported 5 516 tonnes of live, fresh or chilled crab from the Netherlands, Ireland and the United Kingdom, an increase of 29 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Canadian exports of crab to the United States of America increased during the review period by almost 26 percent to 41 339 tonnes, accounting for over 46 percent of total United States of America's crab imports during the first nine months of 2019.

Russian crab exports during the first nine months of 2019 increased to 51 570 tonnes, up by 12.5 percent compared to the same period in 2018. The largest market for Russian crab was the Republic of Korea, which accounted for almost 62 percent of total Russian crab exports. However, the steepest growth was recorded for shipments to the Netherlands, where 10 732 tonnes of Russian crab were imported during this period, up by 47 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Russian crab exports to China during this period increased just marginally, from 7 179 tonnes in the first nine months of 2018 to 7 494 tonnes during the same period in 2019.

From January – September 2019, Chinese crab exports dropped by 20 percent to 37 661 tonnes compared to the same period in 2018. Shipments to Japan and the United States of America declined by 7.8 percent and 36.5 percent, respectively, while exports to the Republic of Korea increased by an impressive 37.8 percent. 

Prices

Japanese import prices for red king crab have been climbing upwards over the past five years. However, since the beginning of 2018 prices have been relatively flat. With increasing demand from China, some upward price movement is expected. Snow crab prices are expected to weaken somewhat.

Outlook

The supply outlook for 2020 is varied. The Dungeness crab fishery on the United States of America's West Coast has been delayed and will probably be lower than last year. However, the fishery has faced problems for several years now. King crab supplies will be tighter, with a 10 percent reduction in the Bristol Bay fishery, but a stronger supply from the Barents Sea. Snow crab supplies, on the other hand, will likely be stronger in both Alaska and in the Barents Sea. Russian crab exporters seem focused on live crab in early 2020. There is increasing demand for live crab in the Chinese market, especially in connection with the Chinese New Year. 

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