After a long process of negotiation and regulatory review, the newly consolidated structure of the Greek farmed bass and bream industry is now clear. The hope is that scale-driven efficiencies and coordinated, modern marketing strategies will help to lift the sector from its current lull.

Production

Some recent reports suggest that total production for 2019 is slightly above 2018, beating forecasts earlier in the year for 462 000 tonnes. The Spanish Association of Marine Aquaculture Producers (APROMAR) also reported a 3.6 percent year-on-year increase in juvenile production in 2018, for a total of 1.362 billion units, on par with estimates from the research firm Kontali. This has direct implications for 2019 production levels, as bream typically reach marketable size in 12–18 months, and bass in 18-24 months. Once again, the bulk of the increased harvests in 2019 have come from Turkey, which has led production growth in the sector for some years now.

With sector consolidation underway in Greece amidst a poor market environment, the Turkish industry has also been encountering challenges. Harvest volumes continue to grow in the face of insufficient demand, while the Turkish economy is only slowly recovering from a period of high inflation and financial instability. This has pushed prices down sharply in international trade, while economic conditions have also affected the domestic market, with many companies struggling financially. There have been reports that loans are provisional on stocking targets, exasperating the excess supply problem as companies aim for higher harvests even as prices fall.

Trade and markets

In the weak price environment, bass and bream marketers have been focusing their efforts on valueadding activities such as processing and branding, particularly sustainability certification. Fillets and Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC) certified products are making up an increasing proportion of total sales. With average traded prices significantly down, the total value of seabass and bream exports increased by only 2 percent in the first nine months of 2019 in euro terms, despite an 11 percent increase in total exported volume over the same period. Turkey and Greece, the two largest producers, supplied 38 percent and 36 percent of total exported volume respectively, with Spain in 3rd place with almost 5 percent.

The majority of this supply was directed to the European Union markets, with Italy and Spain reporting respective increases of 11 and 21 percent in volume terms over the same review period. Combined, these two markets accounted for 42 percent of total reported imports, in both volume and euro terms. From January-September 2019, smaller markets such as Greece imported 40 percent more in volume, almost all of it from Turkey. Over the same period, both the United States of America (+18 percent in volume) and the Russian Federation (+20 percent in volume) showed significant growth in 2019. United States of America imports consist primarily of seabass, from both Greece and Turkey, while Turkey is by far the leading supplier of seabass and seabream to the Russian Federation accounting for over 99 percent of the volume on the market. 

Prices

The average unit value of fresh whole bass exports by the major producers was down by around 13 percent in the first nine months of 2019, dropping to EUR 4.37 per kg. Bream equivalents were at EUR 4.26 per kg, reflecting a 6 percent drop. For Turkish exporters, prices in lira terms rose slightly in the review period, up 2 percent for seabass and 11 percent up for seabream, a reflection of the downward exchange rate trend.

Outlook

Juvenile production in 2019 is estimated to have dropped compared to 2018, although there is a lack of consensus on the percent decrease. Most observers expect this to translate into a drop in total production in 2020, with supply relatively tighter for seabream. With the approach of summer, seasonal demand is expected to spike and the tighter supply-demand balance is expected to lift prices to more sustainable levels for producers. Productivity gains, innovation, revamped branding strategies and sales channel diversification will be key areas of focus of the newly restructured Greek aquaculture sector.