This year's strong El Niño off the west coast of South America may create long-term problems for the anchovy fishery. Fishers have reported low landings and a high share of juveniles. Consequently, scientists fear that the long-term viability of this fishery, which is the world's largest, may be in danger. Adding to the issue is the serious disagreement about the size and status of the stocks. Peru's Marine Research Institute, Imarpe, estimates that the resource has sunk as low as 3.38 million tonnes, while the fishing industry itself, using a different method of estimating the biomass, claims that the stocks amount to 6.8 million tonnes. According to Undercurrent News, Peru's anchovy quota for the 2016 season was set at 1.1 million tonnes, and by mid-January, 85% of this quota had already been caught.

Despite movements to promote the utilization of anchovies for direct human consumption in Peru, DHC has gone down dramatically. In 2011, as much as 250 000 tonnes went for processing into products for human consumption in Peru, but in 2014, this number had been reduced to just 40 000 tonnes. A number of Peru's 200 processing plants have been forced to close down due to the low raw material supply.

The California sardine fishery continues to face significant problems. A new assessment by federal authorities showed that the sardine population off California was one third lower in the first quarter of 2016 than the same time period last year, in spite of the fact that the fishery was closed for the entire 2015 season. Consequently, it is highly unlikely that this fishery will open at all in 2016.

Trade

Imports of canned sardines into France fell by 10% in 2015 compared with 2014. Shipments from both of the main suppliers, Morocco and Portugal, fell by 15.3% and 9.5%, respectively.
US imports of canned sardines were more or less stable in 2015, declining only slightly to 28 800 tonnes (-2.4%). Morocco climbed from third supplier in 2014 to becoming the leading exporter in 2015, accounting for 5 600 tonnes or 19.4% of total US canned sardine imports. Canada dropped from first to second place on the list of the largest suppliers.