At the end of 2019, the outlook for the Mediterranean bass and bream was improving as supply looked to be finally tightening and prices were expected to pick up. The COVID-19 outbreak and the associated economic impact has hit the sector hard, however, and badly needed summer demand is likely to be severely weakened.

Production

Growth in farmed bass and bream harvests in the Mediterranean slowed significantly in 2019 due to a sharp reduction in juvenile stocking levels. Farmers have become much more cautious in their production planning after the upward supply trajectory began to negatively impact the market. Estimates for the year put combined harvests of both species at around 450 000 tonnes, with bream making up marginally more than half this total.

The two largest producers, Greece and Turkey, have throttled back production, although export figures suggest that growth is still positive. In Turkey, falling market prices and more restrictive business conditions in a sluggish economy have slowed previously rapid expansion. Following a lengthy consolidation process, the Greek farmed bass and bream industry underwent significant transformation resulting in a clear consolidated structure. It is hoped that increased production efficiencies and coordinated marketing efforts will help to stabilize a Greek sector that has long struggled with profitability.

Trade and markets

Although export volumes increased for both species in 2019, a fall in export prices saw a relatively smaller increase in revenues. In euro terms, Greece export value rose to 3.7 percent to EUR 466 million while Turkish value increased 9 percent to EUR 363 million. It should be noted however, that these figures do not include fillets, which are making up an increasing proportion of the market, particularly in Turkey’s case. Of the two species, bream accounted for a slight majority of revenue, partially due to relatively higher values. On the market side, Italy is by far the largest importer, recording EUR 343 million total import value in 2019. This is a 3 percent increase year-on-year and 28 percent of total imports. Spain was the second largest importer, with a 17 percent increase yearon- year and 13 percent of total imports. In 2019, Spanish import value grew to EUR 160 million.

Prices

Before the COVID-19 situation, both bass and bream prices were slowly rising after being given a boost by the Spanish losses caused by the powerful storm “Gloria”. In the second quarter, however, price dynamics changed entirely as sales have dropped sharply, logistical costs have spiked and biomasses are building up at farms.

Outlook

The somewhat brighter outlook for the bass and bream sector that was emerging at the end of last year has deteriorated once again in 2020. First, storm Gloria in the Western Mediterranean saw the Spanish sector lose almost 50 percent of fish in the pens to escapes. Although this could have translated into tighter supply and lifted prices, the wider market impact brought about by COVID-19 has seen demand evaporate and quickly pushed the vulnerable Greek industry into dangerous financial territory. Bass and bream are popular dishes in European restaurants, particularly in the Mediterranean countries, and the enforced closure of all restaurants and bars in these markets has removed a very important source of revenue.

Restrictions on flights is also affecting supply of fresh fish to retail. Amongst other damaging effects are the contraction of the European tourism industry and the added costs of cross-border logistics. The Greek sector has warned that it will require assistance as market conditions worsen. With backed up biomasses and an uncertain path to economic recovery, sector profitability is set to be severely impacted.