As a sector that depends heavily on foodservice and fresh retail demand, the Mediterranean farmed bass and bream industry has been hit hard by the market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a combination of factors is keeping harvest volumes down and prices are rising.

Production

Prior to the current crisis, the majority of bass and bream farmers had already significantly reduced their stocking targets in response to a drop in prices. This shift saw supply growth slow in 2019 and the trend has turned negative in 2020. Lower levels of juvenile stocking in 2019 (30-40 percent down year-on-year), losses due to Storm Gloria in Spain and the effect of COVID-19 on farming operations and market demand have all contributed to this decline. According to market research firm Kontali, production is expected to drop by 8 to 9 percent in 2020, but other sector reports suggest the decrease could be significantly more.

The evaporation of sales in core markets, as well as the logistical challenges resulting from COVID-19 restrictions, has created very difficult business conditions for the Mediterranean sector. This is particularly true for the smaller players who have limited capacity to absorb financial shocks. Both Greece and—more recently—Turkey, were also facing economic difficulties before the pandemic, and the current environment is exasperating the situation. Fish in the pens that cannot be sold must nevertheless be fed and this drain on financial resources will likely force many smaller aquaculture firms into bankruptcy.

Trade and markets

In the first quarter of 2020, exports of both bass and bream by the major producers dropped in year-on- year terms, mirroring a decline in harvests at farm level. Imports into all major markets also fell, with the notable exception of Spain, where there is a general lack of fish after the loss of a substantial proportion of production due to storm Gloria.

As with other species, bass and bream marketers are now increasingly dependent on retail sales to compensate for a lack of foodservice demand, heavily subdued Mediterranean tourism season and general shift away from fresh product. Relative to most other seafood options, however, the bass and bream sector is still some way behind in this regard. Companies that had already started to diversify their product range to include prepared and/or preserved options prior to the pandemic are faring somewhat better. There have been varying estimates for the total decline in sales on European markets, but the figure is estimated at around 40 percent, rising significantly higher for companies that primarily supply foodservice.

Prices

As supply volumes have contracted in 2020, import prices for bass have staged a significant recovery. For 300-450 g fresh whole bass from Greece into Italy (CIF), prices rose from EUR 3.60 per kg in January to EUR 4.50 per kg by June. For bream the climb was less dramatic, from EUR 4.50 per kg to EUR 4.70 per kg.

Outlook

Supply of both bass and bream will continue to contract in the medium term, and this will support prices despite the deterioration of market conditions. Delayed harvests will lead to a higher than normal proportion of larger fish in the harvest. The large decrease in volumes has translated into sharply reduced revenues for bass and bream aquaculture companies and businesses will continue to struggle until foodservice demand recovers. In the longer-term, the process of consolidation will see smaller businesses acquired by larger entities due to financial pressure.