Mixed trends in pangasius production and trade keep the market firm.

With a forecast of lower production in 2013, Viet Nam is struggling to address the many problems facing the industry. Production from Indonesia is increasing rapidly.  The EU imported more during the first quarter 2013 while imports to the USA, the single largest market, experienced a decline in the first quarter of 2013. Meanwhile the United States Department of Commerce (DoC) recently announced their decision to increase anti-dumping duties on pangasius imported from Viet Nam.

Global supply and trade

Latest FAO data reports world pangasius production at 1.43 million tonnes in 2011, up 235% from 2004, driven primarily by the growth in production in Viet Nam. In 2011, Viet Nam, the leading producer, reported a production of 1.15 million tonnes. Other producers in Asia are Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar. Indonesia is the second largest producer and is actively increasing production. In 2012, its production stood at 651 000 tonnes.

During the first quarter of 2013, a total of 58 000 tonnes of frozen pangasius fillet valued at USD 144 million entered 33 countries. More products entered Asian and Latin American markets while the US imported a smaller amount. Imports into Russia went up by 122%.

Viet Nam

Farmers continue to experience losses because of high production costs resulting from rising feed prices and low ex-farm prices. The current average ex-farm price is VND 21 000/kg (USD 1.01/kg). As a result of the persisting problems faced by the industry, production in 2013 is forecast to be below one million tonnes, the Viet Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) reports.

In the first quarter of 2013, Viet Nam exported USD 389 million worth of pangasius, down 8.7% from a year ago. Exports to the major markets of the EU and the USA fell but higher exports went to Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.

Among ASEAN countries, Singapore emerged as the largest importer with nearly 3 700 tonnes of pangasius valued at USD 7.7 million. Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines imported between 18% and 100% more than a year ago. Pangasius is popularly marketed as “dory” in most Southeast Asian countries. Consumption of fillet in this region has increased significantly since the product was introduced nearly a decade ago. In their efforts to diversify markets, Viet Nam has also increased its exports to India, the Middle East and parts of Latin America.

USA

Frozen pangasius imports dropped during the first quarter of 2013 by 12% to 20 006 tonnes from the same time in 2012, while the severe drop in prices of pangasius led to a 28% decline in import value. Supplies fell not only from the main source, Viet Nam, but from all other sources as well.

Meanwhile, the United States Department of Commerce (DoC) has decided to increase anti-dumping duties on pangasius imported from Viet Nam. The anti-dumping tax will be increased by an additional USD 0.52-1.29 per kilo. The tax hike was announced after the USA found errors in the calculation of the previous tax, saying that the increase was consistent with the calculated data. In March, the US imposed a high tax rate of USD 0.77 per kilo on Vietnamese pangasius. It chose Indonesia as the sole benchmark country to calculate the anti-dumping rate.

US Domestic catfish

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Agricultural Marketing Service has recently announced plans to purchase frozen US farm-raised catfish up to a value of USD 10 million for federal food nutrition assistance programs, including charitable institutions.  The Catfish Farmers of America (CFA) welcomed the move saying that the USDA’s purchase will provide tremendous economic benefit to the US catfish industry whilst also encouraging domestic consumption. The USDA’s Section 32 program allows the federal agency to purchase and donate fish, meats, poultry, fruits and vegetables to domestic nutrition programs for low-income Americans.

EU

Contrary to the declining trends throughout 2012, the EU imported 2% more frozen pangasius fillet during the first three months of 2013.  The lower average import price from USD 2.79/kg to USD 2.25/kg resulted in a 14% decline in the import value, which amounted to USD 79.1 million. Spain, the largest market for pangasius within the EU, imported 6 023 tonnes, which was higher than in the same period of 2012. Other major markets, namely the Netherlands, Germany and Poland, imported lower quantities while Lithuania, Hungary, Estonia, Croatia, Denmark, Czech Republic and Greece imported more.

Indonesia

The Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (MMAF) continues to encourage increased production of pangasius catfish, known locally as ‘patin’, with the national production target in 2013 of 1.1 million tonnes. This is in line with MMAF’s policy that has selected pangasius as one of the key commodities for the aquaculture industrialisation. The development of patin farming has shown a significant increase over the past 5 years with production increasing from 31 490 tonnes in 2006 to 651 000 tonnes last year. In addition to meeting the needs of the domestic market, catfish are also targeted for export and to reduce imports.

The ministry has identified centres of catfish farming to be spread over 10 provinces, including the island of Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan. Currently there are eight plants processing pangasius fillet and these are located in Jakarta, Surabaya, Jambi and Banjarmasin. The development of pangasius farming is also aimed at reducing imports of pangasius fillet, which comes mainly from Viet Nam. Imported pangasius fillet is mainly absorbed by the catering sector, which needs around 100 tonnes per month, according the ministry. In 2012, Indonesia imported about 1 300 tonnes of pangasius fillet from Viet Nam.

Brazil

In a move to to ensure the quality of fishery imports, the Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture (MPA) has announced that all imported fish must be analysed and subjected to an Import Risk Analysis (IRA). This is aimed at assessing the potential risk of introducing microorganisms capable of causing disease in the country. The MPA requires farmers to adopt internationally accepted production practices at the origin.

As noted is the section on tilapia, Brazil is concerned about possible negative effects that consuming foreign aquatic products could have on the Brazilian population. After the mission to Viet Nam to assess their Official Veterinary Service, already mentioned in the tilapia section, the mission report was sent to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), who will liaise further with the Vietnamese authorities.

Brazil imported more than 7 000 tonnes of frozen pangasius fillet from Viet Nam during the January – March 2013 period.

Outlook

Higher supplies are expected to come from producers other than Viet Nam, in particular Indonesia, who is actively increasing production. The anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese products entering the US market are likely to have an impact but the extent of this impact remains to be seen.