Better catches and more raw material bring prices down

In sharp contrast to 2010, catches during 2011 have improved considerably, in particular during the second quarter as the season in Chile and Peru got under way. According to the International Fishmeal and Fish Oil Organization (IFFO), for the first five months of 2011, raw material use by IFFO members  increased 50% overall, in particular in Peru, which saw a rise of 149%. Usage in Chile, the second largest oil producer was only moderately up on 2010.  The situation in the North Atlantic was slightly down on 2010, whereas South Africa saw raw material use fall 20%. Peruvian catches by mid July had reached 4.5 million tonnes compared with only 2.7 million tonnes during 2010. Oil yields, however, are somewhat lower this year. The quota in the Peruvian North/Central fishing zone has now been reached (3 675 000 tonnes). By mid-July, only 129 000 tonnes of the quota in the Peruvian Southern zone of 400 000 tonnes had been landed but this will change soon as the fleet moves south. In Chile, by mid-July, fishing in the Northern zone was positive with 860 000 tonnes landed compared with 630 000 tonnes in 2010. Catches in Chile’s Southern zone were on par with last year at 1 115 000 tonnes. In the USA, fishing for menhaden has been good both in the Gulf and in the Atlantic.
 
In Europe, the Icelandic spring spawning herring fishery is under way with the Icelandic quota set at 149 000 tonnes. Denmark’s sandeel season is coming to an end as the 334 000 tonnes quota has almost been reached. In July, Norwegian vessels began fishing on the 95 000 tonne quota for the capelin fishery in the Greenland/Jan Mayen zone. As a result of improved aggregate catches during 2011, oil production has also grown compared with 2010. By end of May, IFFO estimates oil production by its members to be close to 320 000 tonnes, 51% higher than in 2010.

Markets

Fish oil prices reached record levels in early 2011 given the uncertainty about the season’s catch quotas in Peru. After a high in February at more than USD 1 800 per tonne (Peruvian feed grade), prices declined until April to reach USD 1 150 per tonne, but have since rebounded to around USD 1 300 FOB. Buyers are generally cautious against limited availability.

Outlook

Large price swings have made the market cautious with both buyers and sellers reluctant to commit. Increased demand from aquaculture, Chile’s comeback in salmon production and a strong market for food supplements should indicate somewhat higher prices in the medium term.