Despite low prices, demand has not increased in the global canned tuna market.

During the first quarter of the year, canned tuna imports were lower than compared with the same time period in 2014 in most of the traditional developed markets. Prices of frozen skipjack were 15-20% lower year on year. Consumer demand for sashimi tuna remains seasonal in Japan with less consumption during summer months, while in the USA, the market has been stable for tuna loins and steaks.

Supply

The price weakening for frozen skipjack started in December 2013 (USD 1 950 per tonne), reaching USD 1 150 per tonne cfr Thailand by late 2014 and below USD 1 000 per tonne in April 2015 as a result of falling demand from the major markets. Lower fuel prices also influenced the market, as with less operating costs, tuna producers could offer tuna at a lower price. Imports of raw material by Thailand, the top producer of canned tuna worldwide, started to taper beginning in May 2014 and have continued to slow until May of this year due to sluggish demand in the USA, the EU and some major markets in the Middle East. Consequentially, inventory has built up.

During the January-March 2015 period, Thai imports of frozen tuna were 38 500 tonnes lower (-20%) than compared with the same period last year. Skipjack was the most affected category, which can be seen by its falling price trend.

Tuna canneries in Latin America also faced similar situations in which inventories remained moderate to high during the reporting period. Imports of skipjack and yellowfin in Ecuador during the first quarter 2015 were 14% and 7% lower compared with the first quarter 2014. According to IATTC, tuna catches in the Eastern Pacific were 22.4% higher, totaling 168 680 tonnes, with increased landings of both skipjack and yellowfin during the January-March 2015 period compared with the same period in 2014.

As of late June 2015, tuna catches in the Western and Central Pacific were moderate, following the World Tuna Purse Seine Organization’s decision to reduce the fishing effort by 35% from 15 May to 31 December 2015 in an effort to handle the market crisis. Fleets in the Eastern Pacific Ocean have been excluded from the measure due to the upcoming fishery closure in the region, starting 29 July.

Frozen inventories in Thailand have reduced to moderate levels with increased levels of production. Consequently, the skipjack price has increased to USD 1 150/tonne, cfr Bangkok.

Canned tuna production is improving in the Eastern Pacific and as of mid-June, skipjack and yellowfin prices have increased to USD 900 per tonne and USD 1 500 per tonne respectively, ex-vessel Manta, Ecuador.

In the Atlantic Ocean, fishing was moderate in June and inventories at local canneries were healthy. Prices of skipjack and yellowfin were stable at EUR 950 per tonne and EUR 1 650 per tonne respectively, ex-vessel Abidjan.

In the Indian Ocean, local canneries are sufficiently stocked. Skipjack and yellowfin prices in June were stable at EUR 975 and EUR 1 550 per tonne, FOB Mahe, Seychelles.

In recent news, there have been reports of recovery for Atlantic bluefin resources. Last year, the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) permitted a 20% rise in the catch quotas following three years of progressive recovery for Atlantic bluefin stocks, which is a positive development for the sashimi tuna supply. This year, the Spanish bluefin tuna fleet reached their catch quota sooner than usual.

Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) agreed to adopt an interim Fish Aggregating Devise (FAD) of 550 FAD per vessel. A working group has been set up to assess the impact of FADs used in large-scale fishing, and will work closely with the similar taskforce established for resource management.

Non-Canned tuna markets (fresh and frozen)

Demand for sashimi tuna improved in Japan, the largest market for this product, during the spring festivals in April/May. In the USA, demand for non-canned tuna has also been strong since May both in the retail and catering trade. During the first quarter of 2015, the USA was an important export market for fresh tuna, reporting increased supplies from overseas.

Japan

Demand for sashimi tuna remains highly seasonal in Japan, with demand strengthening during the spring festivals in April/May and prices increasing. For instance, the average auction prices of frozen bigeye tuna increased during the Golden Week to JPY 950-1 200 per kg. After these festivities, demand generally goes down.

In local news, in early April, the auction market in Tokyo was overwhelmed with the unusual landing of a locally caught bluefin (411 kg, 2.65 m), which fetched the highest price reported thus far.

Imports of fresh tuna into Japan were at record lows during the first quarter of 2015, demonstrating a continuation of the declining demand trend over the past few years. Imports of frozen sashimi quality bigeye and yellowfin were also low, highlighting the shrinking demand in the market. However, imports of frozen skipjack increased by 50% during the first quarter of 2015 compared with the same time period last year, as the domestic catch season was delayed this year. As a result, total imports of frozen tuna were 2.8% higher during the reporting period compared with the same period last year. When looking specifically at just frozen tuna loins however, Japanese imports increased significantly from 10 470 tonnes during the first quarter of 2014 to over 13 000 tonnes during the first quarter of 2015 (+24%).

USA

Interestingly, the US market imported more air-flown fresh tuna than Japan during the reporting period, but did report a marginal decline against the same time period last year, due to weakened demand from the cold weather. However, since May, sales of fresh and frozen tuna steaks have improved in the market. US retailers offer frozen thawed tuna steak at prices in the range of USD 10.00-16.00 per lb. Generally, the Pacific origin products fetch higher prices. Due to the import ban on Sri Lankan tuna into the EU because of IUU issues, the USA has emerged as an alternative market for Sri Lankan tuna.

For frozen tuna loins not intended for further processing, there was a 16% rise in imports into the EU during the first quarter period, reaching 3 991 tonnes. Viet Nam was the leading source for frozen tuna loins into the EU, exporting 927 tonnes, with nearly half going to the UK, which bought 432 tonnes. Imports of frozen tuna loin into the UK doubled from Ecuador and also increased from Mexico by 32%, reaching 485 tonnes from each of these sources. Supplies from the important source Sri Lanka were 98% lower because of the import ban.

Canned tuna

Global demand for canned tuna remained dormant during the first quarter of 2015. Imports were lower than last year’s in the large markets (the USA, the EU, Egypt, Libya and Australia) and in some emerging markets in developing countries. As a result, export earnings from canned tuna declined in the producing countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa.

EXPORTS

During January-March 2015, the top six global exporters of processed tuna including cooked loins were Thailand, Ecuador, the Philippines, Spain, China and Mauritius. Exports declined from all countries except China due to the increased supplies of cooked loins.

Thailand

Quantitative exports of processed tuna from Thailand were 8% lower during January-March 2015 compared with the same period a year ago, with the corresponding fall in value much higher at 18% due to the lower export prices. Exports to the USA, the largest market, declined by 23% in quantity and by 29% in value. In the EU market, Thailand was the top supplier during the first quarter 2015, but reported a 31% decline in quantity and 57% in value compared with the corresponding period in 2014.

Ecuador

Ecuador was the largest producer of canned/prepared tuna in Latin America during the first quarter period, exporting 40 340 tonnes, a marginal decline of 3% when compared with the first quarter 2014. However, there were significant declines in certain export markets during the first three months of the year. In Ecuador’s largest market, the EU, imports declined by a notable 26%, with a significant fall in cooked loin supplies to Spain (-64%). In Ecuador’s regional markets of Chile and Brazil, imports fell by 36% and in Venezuela by 70%, demonstrating their weakness compared with the first quarter last year.

Amongst the other canned tuna producers, exports declined by 37% from the Philippines, 9% from Spain and 12% from Mauritius. However, through increased supplies of cooked loins to the EU and canned tuna to Africa, China grew their processed tuna exports by 67% to total 17 520 tonnes during this period.

Among the European canners, exports declined from Spain at 18 542 tonnes (-8.7%), Portugal at 2 300 tonnes (-17%) and France at 672 tonnes (-28%) but increased from Italy by 11% at 5 767 tonnes, with most Italian product sold within the EU markets.

IMPORTS

Despite the general decline in prices, canned tuna import trends during the first quarter 2015 were negative in the USA, the EU, Switzerland and Australia, though increases were reported in Japan (+11%) and Canada (+47%), among the developed markets.

In the Middle East and North Africa markets, the trend for canned tuna imports was mixed due to the political instability and unrest in the region. Imports increased in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Yemen and Algeria but declined in Israel, Libya, Jordan, and Syria during the first quarter of 2015 compared with the same time period last year. Imports increased in Southeast Asia. In Latin America, imports declined by more than 30% in Brazil and Venezuela, but increased in Argentina, Costa Rica, Peru and Mexico, which provided Ecuador a favourable opportunity.

USA

Overall, imports of processed and canned tuna in the US market were 1.4% lower at 49 511 tonnes during the first quarter of the year compared with the same period last year. The lead suppliers were Thailand, China, Ecuador, Fiji, the Philippines and Viet Nam. Imports of cooked loins for reprocessing increased by 3.2%, where China had a 36% market share. Supplies of canned tuna also increased reasonably by 10% but imports of the higher value “tuna in pouch” fell by 24% during the reporting period, indicating slower demand in the market.

Europe

Total imports of processed tuna from external EU countries into the EU markets reached 167 447 tonnes during January-March 2015, valued at USD 530.6 million. These numbers demonstrate a reduction of 3.5% in volume and 24% in value compared with the same time period last year. The top suppliers were Ecuador, Thailand, the Philippines, Mauritius and China. Of the total imported, 24% (40 635 tonnes) was cooked loins imported by Spain, Italy, France and Portugal. Imports of cooked loins declined in Spain by 56% but increased by 62% in Italy, making total EU imports of loin 3.7% higher than the same period last year.

Among the individual markets for processed tuna in the EU, imports increased in the UK (+8%) and in Germany (+4%), but declined in other EU markets.

In terms of processed tuna trade outside of the EU, Norway reported 35% growth in import volumes (757 tonnes), Switzerland a 3.5% volume decline (2 280 tonnes) and the Russian Federation a 37% volume decline (797 tonnes).

Outlook 

Compared with a year ago, canned tuna imports were lower in the major markets, upsetting export revenues in the producing countries. This situation is unlikely to change in the near future. In a recent interview with Undercurrent News, the President and CEO of Thai Union, the world’s largest canned tuna processor, highlighted the situation in the following statement. “The market is soft. Over 2015, the average prices will be on the low side. This is something new to everybody.”

For non-canned tuna, summer demand in the USA is likely to be strong for both fresh and frozen loins and steaks. Similarly, sashimi tuna consumption in Japan is likely to improve during the summer holiday months of July/August.