The intensity and frequency of natural hazards and conflicts is increasing, and they are leaving in their wake an unprecedented level of humanitarian needs. Natural hazards alone occur nearly five times as often today as 40 years ago. The number of people displaced by conflict, meanwhile, is the highest ever recorded, and millions more are driven to migrate out of necessity. That is why FAO has been a long-time advocate of anticipatory interventions and works closely with governments and partners in the humanitarian and scientific community to anticipate crises before they reach a crest. By building country-specific Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) systems, FAO and its partners are able to monitor key indicators that predict shocks and to trigger anticipatory action once they exceed pre-defined thresholds that raise the alarm.

This study analyses the outcome of acting early on the island of Mindanao in the Philippines between 2018 and 2019, ahead of an El Niño‑induced drought. It evaluates the effectiveness of anticipatory actions and highlights families’ perspectives on the benefits of acting early.