Highlights:

• Rift Valley Fever(RVF)

In Eastern Africa, Rift Valley Fever is predicted to spread due to conflicts, the lack of veterinary services, and the informal cross-border movement of livestock. In addition, according to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool, suitable environmental conditions for vector amplification are predicted to persist in small and localized areas in southern Kenya and in the United Republic of Tanzania. Kenya is still considered under threat: in the past year, the country was affected by an important RVF epidemic that involved both humans and domestic animals. In addition, Uganda, South Sudan and Rwanda were also affected by RVF during the past year.

Considering the current environmental conditions, which are suitable for vector amplification, the aboveaverage rainfall for the forecast period, and the potential informal marketing of infected animals from Eastern African countries, RVF is likely to occur in southeastern Saudi Arabia. The country was greatly affected by the disease in 2000 and 2010.

In South Africa, according to the FAO RVF Monitoring/Early Warning tool, the predicted environmental suitability for vector amplification and the potential risk of RVF occurrence during this forecast period are considered moderate in Madagascar, Malawi, Mayotte, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

• Fall armyworm (FAW)

in southern Asia, FAW was reported in India in July 2018. By January 2019, it had spread to Bangladesh, China, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand, while it is supposed to be present in Viet Nam and Malaysia. During this forecast period, FAW is expected to spread to new areas within these countries and to neighbouring countries.

• African Swine Fever (ASF)

ASF continues to be reported in the region. China (where the disease has been present since August 2018), Mongolia (January 2019) and Viet Nam (February 2019) are currently reporting outbreaks in domestic pigs and cases in wild boar. The risk of ASF spread is considered high within China, Mongolia, Viet Nam and other East and Southeast Asian countries. ASF has potentially devastating consequences for animal health and food security, especially if it were to spread to other countries in Southeast Asia. In recent months, there have been numerous detections of the ASF virus in pork samples brought to other countries in the region (such as Australia, Japan and the Republic of Korea).